211
FXHW60 PHFO 040111
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
311 PM HST MON AUG 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE
LINGERS FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AND MAY BE A LITTLE MORE FREQUENT FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TRADE WINDS THEN LOOK TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS DRIVING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WHICH ARE DELIVERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOSTLY WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE RESIDES TO THE
FAR NE WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING W AND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE
TO DECREASING THE TRADE WINDS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO BY
TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AND COULD GIVE A SMALL BOOST TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AREAS OF LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA
BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD AND SHOWER BUILDUPS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY BY FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INCOMING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALONG A TROUGH CONNECTED TO THE ITCZ. TRADES COULD PUSH
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS BIG ISLAND AND MAUI IF IT MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH. TRADE WINDS ALSO LOOK TO INCREASE DURING THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
GENTLE TRADES WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD
AND MAUKA REGIONS WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF NIGHTTIME LAND AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT, BUT AIRMET SIERRA FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF
OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
MARINE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS.
HOWEVER A FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE ISLAND WILL
HELP TO WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW, AS WILL THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE LIFTING TO THE NORTH TO THE EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST, AND THE TROPICAL
REMNANTS LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE, TRADE WINDS SHOULD
RESTRENGTHEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SURF BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR THE SOUTH SHORES THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE WEEK. A SMALL, LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF
SOUTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SURF
HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY WITH STEADY
DECREASING TRENDS AS THE TRADE WINDS EASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENEVIEVE WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING AND WEST SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO THE
EASTERLY TRADE WRAP.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TSAMOUS
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...M BALLARD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page