691
FXHW60 PHFO 040624
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
824 PM HST MON AUG 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE
LINGERS FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AND MAY BE A LITTLE MORE FREQUENT FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TRADE WINDS THEN LOOK TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH IN THE TRADE
WINDS THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS
OVER THE THE HAMAKUA AND NORTH KOHALA COASTS ON THE BIG ISLAND.
THE TRADES WERE AVERAGING 5 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NOTED AT
KUAOKALA (GUSTING TO 30 MPH). SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND
LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL FORECAST. ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM HST MON AUG 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS DRIVING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WHICH ARE DELIVERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOSTLY WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE RESIDES TO THE
FAR NE WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING W AND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE
TO DECREASING THE TRADE WINDS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO BY
TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AND COULD GIVE A SMALL BOOST TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AREAS OF LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA
BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD AND SHOWER BUILDUPS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY BY FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INCOMING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALONG A TROUGH CONNECTED TO THE ITCZ. TRADES COULD PUSH
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS BIG ISLAND AND MAUI IF IT MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH. TRADE WINDS ALSO LOOK TO INCREASE DURING THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP
MODERATE TRADE WINDS IN THE FORECAST. A PASSING LOW LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION WILL BRING
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, FAVORING NORTHERN AND EASTERN WINDWARD MOUNTAIN
SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS.
AIRMET SIERRA IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 020 FOR
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS.
HOWEVER, A FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW, AS WILL THE REMNANTS OF
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE LIFTING NORTH TO THE EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST, AND THE TROPICAL
REMNANTS LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE, TRADE WINDS SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SURF BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR THE SOUTH SHORES THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE WEEK. A SMALL, LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF
SOUTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SURF
HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY, BUT WILL DECREASE
AS THE TRADE WINDS EASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SMALL, MEDIUM
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
GENEVIEVE WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING AND WEST SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO THE
EASTERLY TRADE WRAP.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PARKER
DISCUSSION...TSAMOUS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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