882
FXHW60 PHFO 041941
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
941 AM HST TUE AUG 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
RELATIVELY WEAK TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW AND MIDLEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE PASSES BY.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ENHANCE INCOMING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
RETURNING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
TRADES WILL BE WEAKER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE REMNANT
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE LINGERS BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND HAWAII. AS A RESULT, TRADES WILL BE WEAK AND
LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES WILL BRING INTERIOR AND LEEWARD CLOUD BUILD
UPS EACH AFTERNOON. ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DESCRIBED EARLIER. TRADES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, DOING AWAY WITH MOST OF THE SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS.
THIS WEEKEND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING EITHER
OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.
AVIATION
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP
GENTLE TRADE WINDS IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOICATED LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE, ENHANCING TRADE WIND SHOWERS.
AIRMET SIERRA IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 020 FOR
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT MAY LINGER FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALL OBSERVATIONS FOR POSSIBLE AIRMET
TANGO DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED JET APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION
WILL ALSO KEEP MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE AIRMET ZULU DUE TO LIGHT
ICING ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD BAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 AM HST TUE AUG 4 2026
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
GENEVIEVE CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD, WELL EAST OF THE AREA, AND A
FRONT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN TO LOCALLY
BREEZY LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WHAT IS LEFT OF
GENEVIEVE'S REMNANTS DISSIPATE AND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS NORTH OF
THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK, THOUGH OCCASIONAL SMALL FLUCTUATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS SMALL BACKGROUND SWELLS MOVE THROUGH. BY THIS
SATURDAY, A SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE,
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF REINFORCING SOUTH SWELLS THAT WILL BOOST
SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO NEXT WEEK.
SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO LINGER, BUT WILL GRADUALLY EASE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN,
GENERATED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING AND WEST SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO THE
EASTERLY TRADE WRAP.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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