248
FXHW60 PHFO 081356
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
356 AM HST SAT AUG 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT QUICK WEST PASSING SHOWER
THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ALONG
WINDWARD EXPOSURES AND UPSLOPE MAUKA WITH MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
PASSING OVER RIDGE TOPS AND BRIEFLY WETTING LEEWARD COMMUNITIES.
A PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CLIP THE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS BIG ISLAND, THROUGH MONDAY. BREWING
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROPICS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
GENERALLY LIGHT TO BREEZY TRADES AS THE STATE FALLS IN BETWEEN A
1027 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST AND LOWER EQUATORIAL
PRESSURE. THICK MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGHING WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPREAD WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS,
THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL WARM UP IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 F
ACROSS MANY LOWER LYING SPOTS. TRADES WILL BE WELCOME AS WIND-
SHELTERED COASTAL AREAS FEEL THE MUGGIEST UNDER LOW 70 F DEW
POINTS. RECENT AREA SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP AND MOIST ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT CONTINUED WIDELY-
SCATTERED EASTERLY SHOWERS CAUGHT UP WITHIN MODERATE TRADE FLOW.
A MOISTURE-RICH EASTERLY AIR MASS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE OR DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 10N WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND INITIATE MORE LATE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND ITS SURROUNDING EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. IF ENOUGH EARLY DAY SUN HEATS UP
MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA'S (PRIMARILY WESTERN) SLOPES, IN TANDEM
WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE SOUTH, THERE IS A MENTIONABLE
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE INCREASING PROBABILITIES THAT THIS SOUTHERN EASTERLY
WAVE MAY DEVELOP A LOW CENTER AND STRENGTHEN INTO SOMETHING MORE
PAST 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS CONCERNING
THIS POTENTIAL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK EVOLUTION.
ONCE THIS HIGH SLUG OF SOUTHERN MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TUESDAY, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY PASS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THUS, TUESDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY
WILL BE MORE CLEAR WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. TRADES WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE SO THEY WILL BE A RELIEF FROM WHAT WILL BE
A FEW DAYS OF MUGGY, VERY WARM WEATHER IN LOWER LYING, MORE WIND-
SHELTERED COMMUNITIES. THE LATE WEEK FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON THE STATE OF THE TROPICS. THE MAJORITY OF THE NWP GUIDANCE,
FROM DETERMINISTIC TO ENSEMBLE SUITES TO AI, ARE LATCHING ON TO A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. MANY OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE
LEANING TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM AN ACTIVE
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC REGION. WHILE STILL TOO EARLY TO DEFINITIVELY
DISCUSS ANY DETAILS OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, THIS ACTIVE
AREA WILL WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CIGS AND SHRA
LIKELY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE
OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE MID MORNING HOURS.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD TURB DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN.
THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS AN ESTABLISHED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE LOCALLY STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE TYPICAL WINDY CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS ADVISORY MANY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
EVEN FURTHER OUT IN TIME AS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SMALL, MEDIUM- TO LONG-PERIOD, SOUTH SWELLS WILL
MAINTAIN SURF NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. A MODERATE, LONG- PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL WILL PEAK BY MID NEXT WEEK AND HELP ELEVATE SURF TO NEAR
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES, EXPECT CHOPPY TRADE WIND SWELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS FRESH TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES PERSIST. SURF ALONG
NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THOUGH A SMALL, MEDIUM- PERIOD NORTH SWELL COULD BRING A SLIGHT
BUMP ON SUNDAY.
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG VULNERABLE SHORELINE AREAS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...BLOOD
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...THOMAS
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