431
FXHW60 PHFO 100139
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
339 PM HST SUN AUG 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADES CONTINUE WITH BREEZY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY, THEN STRENGTHENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE LATE MONDAY, LEADING TO RELATIVELY
DRY TRADES FROM THEN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL (90% CHANCE) FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO FORM
TO OUR ESE SOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION
OF HAWAII, BUT WE DON'T YET KNOW HOW CLOSE IT MAY COME. EVERYONE
IS ADVISED TO STAY INFORMED AS NEW FORECASTS ARE ISSUED.
DISCUSSION
RADAR INDICATES SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS ON THE BIG ISLAND,
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM (NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS OF 3:30 PM HST). ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE SEEN MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF MAUI
COUNTY, WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND OF OAHU
OR KAUAI COUNTY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL HELP KEEP TRADES
GOING THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK, AND THIS WILL A SIGNIFICANT
FACTOR IN THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL STORM CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO FORM TO OUR ESE AND THEN MOVE WNW. THE AREA IS
CURRENTLY KNOWN AS INVEST 93C, AND NHC CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (90%)
THAT WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE NAMED LALA WILL FORM SOON. MODEL
SPREAD IS ALSO HIGH, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS, SOME SOUTH, AND A FEW GOING THROUGH OUR STATE. NO
OFFICIAL FORECAST EXISTS YET. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO
BEFORE WE HAVE A FORECAST TRACK. AT THIS POINT, WE SUGGEST THAT
FOLKS MAKE SURE THEY ARE PREPARED AND MAKE SURE TO STAY INFORMED.
NHC WILL HANDLE THE TRACK FORECAST. WE WILL HANDLE LOCAL IMPACTS,
IF ANY, AND WE ARE STILL SOME TIME AWAY FROM KNOWING WHAT THOSE
MIGHT BE.
AVIATION
FRESH TRADES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AIRMET TANGO IS
IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MODERATE TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN
DUE TO WIND SPEEDS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET
FOR WINDWARD SIDES OF OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI AND BIG ISLAND DUE TO A
STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS CARRYING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. BORDERLINE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WHICH
MAY PROMPT FURTHER EXTENSIONS OF THE SCA. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A HIGH
CHANCE IN 7 DAYS FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK, IT WILL HAVE DIFFERING EFFECTS ON
LOCAL WINDS, SEAS AND WEATHER AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AUGUST AVERAGE
THROUGH MONDAY AS OVERLAPPING SOUTH SWELLS IMPACT THE ISLANDS.
SURF LOOKS TO SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEK. A LARGER MODERATE
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY PROMPTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AT ITS PEAK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODERATE AND
ROUGH DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. LATER IN THE
WEEK, THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL'S TRACK WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST.
ASIDE FROM WRAPPING TRADE WIND ENERGY, SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS, A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
AROUND THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. TIDES
WILL BE DECREASING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COASTAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH TIDE FOR LOCATIONS WHERE WATER LEVELS
ARE RUNNING HIGHEST.
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAUAI AND OAHU
THROUGH MONDAY UNDER LIGHT TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND TRADE WIND
SHOWERS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER OVER MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
MODERATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAUAI AND OAHU
THROUGH MONDAY UNDER LIGHT TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND TRADE WIND
SHOWERS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER OVER MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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