526
FXHW60 PHFO 100644
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
844 PM HST SUN AUG 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP
TRADE WIND WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING AN AREA FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE LONG RANGE HAWAII FORECAST COULD CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE ISLANDS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP
TRADE WIND WEATHER CONDITIONS BLOWING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A
WEAK EASTERLY WAVE (LOW LEVEL TROUGH) MOVING THROUGH THE ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME UNSETTLED CLOUDS DRIFTING IN ON THE
TRADE WINDS. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS, AS IT DRIFTS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE, FAVORING
THE WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PASSING WEST
OF THE STATE. DRIER WEATHER TRENDS WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING AN AREA OF CONVECTION FOR POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUED AT 8 PM HST, FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED BY
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE LONG RANGE HAWAII FORECAST COULD
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THEN MOVES TOWARDS
THE ISLANDS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND YOUR
FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM HST SUN AUG 9 2026
RADAR INDICATES SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS ON THE BIG ISLAND,
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM (NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS OF 3:30 PM HST). ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE SEEN MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF MAUI
COUNTY, WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND OF OAHU
OR KAUAI COUNTY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL HELP KEEP TRADES
GOING THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK, AND THIS WILL A SIGNIFICANT
FACTOR IN THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL STORM CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO FORM TO OUR ESE AND THEN MOVE WNW. THE AREA IS
CURRENTLY KNOWN AS INVEST 93C, AND NHC CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (90%)
THAT WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE NAMED LALA WILL FORM SOON. IT WILL
TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE WE HAVE A FORECAST TRACK. AT THIS
POINT, WE SUGGEST THAT FOLKS MAKE SURE THEY ARE PREPARED AND MAKE
SURE TO STAY INFORMED. NHC WILL HANDLE THE TRACK FORECAST. WE WILL
HANDLE LOCAL IMPACTS, IF ANY, AND WE ARE STILL SOME TIME AWAY
FROM KNOWING WHAT THOSE MIGHT BE.
AVIATION
FRESH TRADES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW CIGS AND SHRA
EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. IFR/MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA, OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF
ALL ISLANDS DUE TO A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS CARRYING IN WITH
THE TRADES.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD TURB LEE OF TERRAIN DUE TO WIND
SPEEDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 343 PM HST SUN AUG 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. BORDERLINE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WHICH
MAY PROMPT FURTHER EXTENSIONS OF THE SCA. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A HIGH
CHANCE IN 7 DAYS FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK, IT WILL HAVE DIFFERING EFFECTS ON
LOCAL WINDS, SEAS AND WEATHER AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AUGUST AVERAGE
THROUGH MONDAY AS OVERLAPPING SOUTH SWELLS IMPACT THE ISLANDS.
SURF LOOKS TO SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEK. A LARGER MODERATE
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY PROMPTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AT ITS PEAK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODERATE AND
ROUGH DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. LATER IN THE
WEEK, THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL'S TRACK WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST.
ASIDE FROM WRAPPING TRADE WIND ENERGY, SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS, A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
AROUND THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. TIDES
WILL BE DECREASING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COASTAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH TIDE FOR LOCATIONS WHERE WATER LEVELS
ARE RUNNING HIGHEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 343 PM HST SUN AUG 9 2026
MODERATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAUAI AND OAHU
THROUGH MONDAY UNDER LIGHT TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND TRADE WIND
SHOWERS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER OVER MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...BOHLIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...SHIGESATO
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
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