311
FXHW60 PHFO 102041
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1015 AM HST MON AUG 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL
KEEP TRADE WIND WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING AN AREA FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE LONG RANGE HAWAII FORECAST COULD CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE ISLANDS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM HST MON AUG 10 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL
KEEP TRADE WIND WEATHER CONDITIONS BLOWING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE (LOW LEVEL TROUGH) MOVING THROUGH THE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME UNSETTLED CLOUDS DRIFTING IN ON
THE TRADE WINDS. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS, AS IT DRIFTS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE, FAVORING
THE WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING WEST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. DRIER WEATHER TRENDS WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY 1100 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUED
AT 2 AM HST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK. THE LONG RANGE HAWAII FORECAST FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
COULD CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THEN MOVES
TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ONLINE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV AND YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 336 AM HST MON AUG 10 2026
FRESH TRADES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW CIGS AND
SHRA EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. IFR/MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA, OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF
ALL ISLANDS DUE TO A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS CARRYING IN WITH
THE TRADES.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD TURB LEE OF TERRAIN DUE TO WIND
SPEEDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 AM HST MON AUG 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. BORDERLINE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WHICH
MAY PROMPT FURTHER EXTENSIONS OF THE SCA. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A HIGH
CHANCE IN 7 DAYS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK, IT WILL HAVE DIFFERING EFFECTS ON
LOCAL WINDS, SEAS AND WEATHER AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY
TRACK-DEPENDENT AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AUGUST AVERAGE
TODAY AS OVERLAPPING SOUTH SWELLS IMPACT THE ISLANDS. SURF BUILDS
SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK. A MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY, FILL IN WEDNESDAY, AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT THE
PEAK OF THE SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODERATE AND
ROUGH DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. LATER IN THE
WEEK, THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DICTATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. ASIDE FROM WRAPPING
TRADE WIND ENERGY, SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO
TINY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS, A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. TIDES WILL BE
DECREASING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COASTAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH TIDE FOR LOCATIONS WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE
RUNNING HIGHEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 336 AM HST MON AUG 10 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY REACH CRITERIA EACH DAY OVER
THE DRIEST LEEWARD AREAS AND THE LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL RANGE FROM 5,500 TO 6,500 FEET ELEVATION
TODAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...QUESADA
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