868
FXHW60 PHFO 110156
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
356 PM HST MON AUG 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. A POTENTIAL AREA FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW THIS COULD IMPACT THE
ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING TRADES TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE STATE, SO DESPITE THE BREEZY
TRADE WINDS, IT FEELS MUGGIER THAN NORMAL. A BRIEF DROP IN
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO LOW
70S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO BE
FOCUSED OVER THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWER ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS RELATED TO THE AREA OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO REPORT THAT THE AREA IS
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS NO SYSTEM HAS YET DEVELOPED, THERE REMAIN A LOT
OF QUESTIONS AS TO WHERE ANY SUCH SYSTEM WILL FORM AND MOVE. AS
SUCH, THE FORECAST FOR HAWAII COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE ANY
SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ONLINE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. WHEN AND SHOULD A SYSTEM FORM, THE
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE IMPACTS ON HAWAII.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS MOSTLY OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS,
WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
UPSLOPE BIG ISLAND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF
KAUAI AND BIG ISLAND AS WELL AS LEEWARD AND UPSLOPE BIG ISLAND
DUE TO PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS. THIS AIRMET COULD
CONTINUE SOME OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE LINGERS BUT WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED FOR LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AS LAND BREEZES TAKE HOLD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE SCA MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
IN 2 DAYS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK, IT WILL HAVE DIFFERING EFFECTS ON
LOCAL WINDS, SEAS AND WEATHER AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY
TRACK- DEPENDENT AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED AS
OVERLAPPING SOUTH SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLANDS. A
SLIGHTLY BIGGER SWELL WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER MODERATE,
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY, FILL
IN WEDNESDAY, AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT THE PEAK OF THE SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODERATE AND
ROUGH DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. LATER IN THE
WEEK, THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DICTATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. ASIDE FROM WRAPPING
TRADE WIND ENERGY, SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO
TINY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS, A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. TIDES WILL BE
DECREASING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COASTAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH TIDE FOR LOCATIONS WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE
RUNNING HIGHEST.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY REACH CRITERIA EACH DAY OVER
THE DRIEST LEEWARD AREAS AND THE LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL RANGE FROM 5,500 TO 6,500 FEET ELEVATION
TONIGHT.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...M BALLARD
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...SHIGESATO
FIRE WEATHER...M BALLARD
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