053
FXHW60 PHFO 111310
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
310 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. A POTENTIAL AREA FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW THIS COULD IMPACT THE
ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME SCATTERED
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS MOVING IN ON THE TRADES. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO BREEZY FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING TRADES TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS RELATED TO THE AREA OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO REPORT THAT THE AREA
IS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS NO SYSTEM HAS YET DEVELOPED, A LOT OF QUESTIONS
REMAIN AS TO WHERE ANY SUCH SYSTEM WILL FORM AND MOVE. AS SUCH,
THE FORECAST FOR HAWAII COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE ANY SUCH
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE NHC ONLINE AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. WHEN AND SHOULD A SYSTEM FORM, THE FORECAST
WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE IMPACTS ON HAWAII.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS MOSTLY OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS,
WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING, BUT BRIEF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAY OCCUR ALONG WINDWARD AREAS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO POSITION
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INTO THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
WEEKEND AS WE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE
CURRENTLY IN AN AREA ROUGHLY 1,000 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, AS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT YET FORMED AND TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED IN CASE THIS SYSTEM POTENTIALLY TURNS TOWARDS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AFTER FORMATION POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS THIS
WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AS OVERLAPPING SOUTH SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
ISLANDS WITH SOME SMALLER WRAP AROUND ENERGY ALONG INCREASING SURF
HEIGHTS ALONG EXPOSED WEST FACING SHORES. A SLIGHTLY BIGGER SOUTH SWELL
WILL BUILD IN LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL ARRIVES, PEAKING JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODERATE AND
ROUGH DUE TO CONTINUED TRADE WINDS. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE TRACK
OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LARGE SWELL EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY THROUGH
THE WEEK.
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS, A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TIDES WILL BE DECREASING
BY THE END OF THIS WEEK, BUT COASTAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH TIDE FOR LOCATIONS WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE
RUNNING HIGHEST.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
TRADES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY REACH CRITERIA EACH DAY OVER
THE DRIEST LEEWARD AREAS AND THE LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS RANGE
BETWEEN 5,000 TO 6,500 FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...WALSH
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