086
FXHW60 PHFO 120214
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
414 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SOME SOME PASSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL
BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OF 93C, CURRENTLY OVER
1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND. FOR THE LATEST DEVELOPMENT REGARDING 93C, PLEASE CHECK
OUT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY
SUMMERTIME WEATHER REGIME WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS
AND THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. 00Z HILO AND LIHUE
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 4500-5000 FEET, WHICH
IS ABOUT 1000 FEET LOWER THAN NORMAL AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE
TRADE WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE RELATED TO THE AREA
OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY OVER 1000 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)
CONTINUES TO REPORT THAT THE AREA IS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE STATE TO BE
IMPACTED BY A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS WEEKEND, THE SEVERENESS OF THE
IMPACTS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO LACK OF FORMATION AS OF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED, WE
SHOULD HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER IMPACTS. BUT UNTIL
THEN, HERE IS A LIST OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS THAT WE COULD SEE THIS
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
AND A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
ADVANCE OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGH WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THE TIMING, DIRECTION,
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. EVEN IF THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS, THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
HEAVY RAINFALL...
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST-FACING SLOPES. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHERE MOIST
TROPICAL FLOW INTERACTS WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL
PERSISTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, FLASH FLOODING AND RAPIDLY
RISING STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE.
LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A LARGE EASTERLY
SWELL AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. SURF
MAY BUILD ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES, WITH WARNING-LEVEL SURF OF 15 FEET OR LARGER POSSIBLE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER MOSTLY WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS, AND REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO
POSITION NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INTO THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
WEEKEND AS WE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE
CURRENTLY IN AN AREA ROUGHLY 950 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT YET FORMED AND TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED
IN CASE THIS SYSTEM POTENTIALLY TURNS TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AFTER FORMATION POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AS OVERLAPPING SOUTH SWELLS CONTINUE TO FILL IN AROUND
THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL
WILL FILL IN WEDNESDAY PEAKING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FADING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODERATE AND
ROUGH DUE TO CONTINUED TRADE WINDS. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE TRACK
OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LARGE SWELL EXCEEDING WARNING LEVELS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY THROUGH
THE WEEK.
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS, A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TIDES WILL BE DECREASING
BY THE END OF THIS WEEK, BUT COASTAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH TIDE FOR LOCATIONS WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE
RUNNING HIGHEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 333 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A POCKET OF DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DOWN TO NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD INCREASE FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS THE
TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO STRONG SPEEDS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
WEATHER AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4,500 TO 6,000 FEET OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...ALMANZA
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