664
FXHW60 PHFO 131526
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
526 AM HST THU AUG 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
INCREASED TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY, COMBINED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS, WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND, WE ARE CONTINUING
TO MONITOR TROPICAL STORM LALA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD PREPARE
NOW FOR POTENTIAL RAIN, WIND, AND SURF IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE MONITOR WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
DISCUSSION
EARLY THIS MORNING, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS MOVING
INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. HOWEVER, RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS
BEEN LIGHT, WITH ONLY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
EXPERIENCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,
EPISODE 53 OF LAVA FOUNTAINING IN HALEMA'UMA'U AT THE SUMMIT OF
KILAUEA OFFICIALLY ENDED AT 123AM HST THIS MORNING. NO FURTHER
IMPACTS FROM TEPHRA EMISSIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UP FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
BECOMING BREEZY BY TONIGHT AND LOCALLY STRONG ON FRIDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM LALA. AS OF 5AM HST,
TROPICAL STORM LALA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 145.5W AND MOVING WEST
AROUND 9 KNOTS (10 MPH). BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), LAYLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY, THEN CONTINUE MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
IMPACTS FROM LAYLA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FOR THE EASTERN END OF
THE STATE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS WITHIN THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FOR FORECAST UPDATES AND
PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS DESCRIBED BELOW.
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE'S ARRIVAL. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WHILE A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS COMBINATION OF LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGH WILDFIRE RISK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY, THOUGH THE TIMING, DIRECTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE PAST FEW CYCLES, THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR LAYLA HAVE NUDGED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER, EVEN
IF THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS, THE
NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM WILL STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WIND IMPACTS FOR THE BIG ISLAND
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THEREFORE, A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ITS SURROUNDING WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME FROM NHC KEEPS LALA AS A
HIGH END TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND, THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TO WARRANT THE HURRICANE
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HEAVY RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST-FACING SLOPES.
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS WHERE MOIST TROPICAL FLOW INTERACTS WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. IF
HEAVIER RAINFALL PERSISTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, FLASH FLOODING
AND RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THE LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST RAIN AND ANY BANDS THAT WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, WHICH CURRENTLY
FAVORS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY (THOUGH THE REMAINING ISLANDS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN BANDS AS WELL). THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 5-10 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FAR AS
TIMING, HEAVY RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO IMPACT THE BIG
ISLAND AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, SPREADING TO MAUI ON SATURDAY, AND
LANAI, MOLOKAI, OAHU, AND KAUAI ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...LALA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A LARGE
EASTERLY SWELL AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. SURF MAY BUILD ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES,
WITH WARNING LEVEL SURF OF 15 FEET OR LARGER POSSIBLE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL NEW UPDATES WITH EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
ADVISORY PACKAGES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC),
THE NWS HONOLULU WILL BEGIN DELAYING THE ISSUANCE OF OUR TYPICAL
FORECAST PACKAGE PRODUCTS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING (AFD, SFT,
PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, ETC.) UNTIL AFTER THE RELEASE OF NHC'S SUITE
OF PRODUCTS TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST AND MOST UP-TO- DATE
INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM LALA.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER MOSTLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SHOWERS
WILL SPILL OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR DURING THE
DAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN
SHOWERS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER, AIRMET TANGO
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH AND WEST OF MOUNTAINS DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL
STORM LALA AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE ISLANDS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WEEKEND, PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE, THE
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHICH CAUSES SCA
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND ADJACENT
WATERS (LEEWARD OAHU AND WINDWARD MAUI).
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TROPICAL STORM LALA, CURRENTLY AROUND 650 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND, APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TROPICAL
STORM MOVES INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
ON FRIDAY, WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO RAMP UP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
DEPICTS LALA AS A HIGH-END TROPICAL STORM PASSING NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO
REACH CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH. AS SUCH, A HURRICANE WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE BIG ISLAND
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER PASSING
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ON SATURDAY, LALA IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THEREFORE, MARINE INTERESTS
THROUGHOUT HAWAII SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IMPACTS, INCLUDING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SWELLS, FOR BOTH
OFFSHORE AND COASTAL MARINE ZONES LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES AS A LONG- PERIOD SOUTH SWELL PEAKS TODAY AND REMAINS ELEVATED
TONIGHT. THIS SOUTH SWELL ENERGY MAY LINGER AT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
INTO FRIDAY AND THEN WILL SLOWLY FADE INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SMALL
REINFORCEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL TREND UPWARD GRADUALLY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C.
ADDITIONAL SWELLS GENERATED BY ONE-C ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY,
BUT THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD PRODUCE SURF HEIGHTS EXCEEDING WARNING LEVELS
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND ON SATURDAY AND AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND A POCKET OF DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, WHICH WILL LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES. THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME NEAR-CRITICAL BY FRIDAY DUE TO INCREASED
TRADE WINDS AND DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5,000 TO 7,000
FEET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCOMING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KONA-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI
SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI WEST-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WAIANAE COAST.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG
ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS-KOHALA-KONA.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...MUNROE
MARINE...QUESADA
FIRE WEATHER...VAUGHAN
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