512
FXHW60 PHFO 131928
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
928 AM HST THU AUG 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
INCREASED TRADE WINDS, COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS, WILL ELEVATE
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND, WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR TROPICAL STORM LALA AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR POTENTIAL RAIN, WIND, AND
SURF IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE MONITOR WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ALL EYES ARE OF COURSE ON LALA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST
TAKES IT JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY, BUT THE CONE
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT LANDFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THE STORM
INTENSIFIES TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE FORECAST TRACK MAY UNDERGO
CHANGES. ALSO, WHETHER IT ACTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL OR BRUSHES BY
JUST TO THE SOUTH, IMPACTS WILL STILL BE FELT FROM WIND, RAIN,
AND SURF. OUR SUGGESTION IS TO FOCUS MORE ON THE IMPACTS, AND LESS
ON THE EXACT TRACK.
IN THE MEANTIME, THIS MORNING WE HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE LIGHT, JUST
A FEW TENTHS OR LESS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SPILL OVER TO LEEWARD
AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AVERAGING
10-20 MPH AND GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LATER THIS MORNING,
WHEN THE NEXT 6-HOURLY FORECAST FOR LALA IS ISSUED BY NHC, AN
UPDATE WILL BE DONE INCORPORATING THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND
EXPECTED IMPACTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 526 AM HST THU AUG 13 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS MOVING
INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. HOWEVER, RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS
BEEN LIGHT, WITH ONLY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
EXPERIENCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,
EPISODE 53 OF LAVA FOUNTAINING IN HALEMA'UMA'U AT THE SUMMIT OF
KILAUEA OFFICIALLY ENDED AT 123AM HST THIS MORNING. NO FURTHER
IMPACTS FROM TEPHRA EMISSIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UP FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
BECOMING BREEZY BY TONIGHT AND LOCALLY STRONG ON FRIDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM LALA. AS OF 5AM HST,
TROPICAL STORM LALA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 145.5W AND MOVING WEST
AROUND 9 KNOTS (10 MPH). BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), LALA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY, THEN CONTINUE MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
IMPACTS FROM LALA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FOR THE EASTERN END OF
THE STATE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS WITHIN THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FOR FORECAST UPDATES AND
PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS DESCRIBED BELOW.
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE'S ARRIVAL. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WHILE A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS COMBINATION OF LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGH WILDFIRE RISK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY, THOUGH THE TIMING, DIRECTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE PAST FEW CYCLES, THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR LALA HAVE NUDGED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER, EVEN
IF THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS, THE
NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM WILL STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WIND IMPACTS FOR THE BIG ISLAND
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THEREFORE, A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ITS SURROUNDING WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME FROM NHC KEEPS LALA AS A
HIGH END TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND, THERE
IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TO WARRANT THE HURRICANE
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HEAVY RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST-FACING SLOPES.
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS WHERE MOIST TROPICAL FLOW INTERACTS WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. IF
HEAVIER RAINFALL PERSISTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, FLASH FLOODING
AND RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THE LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST RAIN AND ANY BANDS THAT WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, WHICH CURRENTLY
FAVORS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY (THOUGH THE REMAINING ISLANDS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN BANDS AS WELL). THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 5-10 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FAR AS
TIMING, HEAVY RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO IMPACT THE BIG
ISLAND AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, SPREADING TO MAUI ON SATURDAY, AND
LANAI, MOLOKAI, OAHU, AND KAUAI ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...LALA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A LARGE
EASTERLY SWELL AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. SURF MAY BUILD ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES,
WITH WARNING LEVEL SURF OF 15 FEET OR LARGER POSSIBLE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL NEW UPDATES WITH EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
ADVISORY PACKAGES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC),
THE NWS HONOLULU WILL BEGIN DELAYING THE ISSUANCE OF OUR TYPICAL
FORECAST PACKAGE PRODUCTS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING (AFD, SFT,
PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, ETC.) UNTIL AFTER THE RELEASE OF NHC'S SUITE
OF PRODUCTS TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST AND MOST UP-TO- DATE
INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM LALA.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER MOSTLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SHOWERS
WILL SPILL OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS.
AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR
OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND AS A DENSE, LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF KAUAI MAY BE ADDED TO THE AIRMET LATER IF THIS CLOUD
DECK REMAINS INTACT.
AIRMET TANGO WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MODERATE
TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND WEST OF MOUNTAINS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL
STORM LALA AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE ISLANDS.
MARINE
BREEZY TRADES TAKE HOLD TODAY AND STRENGTHEN AS GOVERNING HIGH
PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM LALA
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AND IS STILL SCHEDULED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
WINDS UNDERGO A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH.
NE WIND ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LALA, PRESENTLY ABOUT 600NM
SE OF HILO, WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS POTENTIALLY EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE BIG ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT. DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS INCLUDING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AND
HIGH SURF SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LALA WILL TRACK WNW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, CLEARING THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY MONDAY.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR S AND W SHORES AS
LONG PERIOD S SWELL PEAKS TODAY AND REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH
TONIGHT. SURF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL THEN BEGINS TO DIMINISH
AS THE PERIOD SHORTENS. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD S SWELL ARRIVES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER BOOST TO SURF.
FOR E SHORES, SURF INITIALLY TRENDS SLOWLY UPWARD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TRADES. ADDITIONAL SWELLS GENERATED
BY TS LALA WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
ARRIVING WITH THE SYSTEM ITSELF THIS WEEKEND. SURF ALONG E FACING
SHORES IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE HIGH SURF WARNING THRESHOLD
DURING THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, DANGEROUS SURF WILL
DEVELOP AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND ON SATURDAY AND AROUND
OAHU AND KAUAI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 526 AM HST THU AUG 13 2026
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND A POCKET OF DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, WHICH WILL LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES. THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME NEAR-CRITICAL BY FRIDAY DUE TO INCREASED
TRADE WINDS AND DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5,000 TO 7,000
FEET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCOMING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KONA-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI
SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI WEST-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WAIANAE COAST.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG
ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS-KOHALA-KONA.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...JVC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page