188
FXHW60 PHFO 142051
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1051 AM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM LALA WILL MOVE OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BUT WIND, RAIN AND SURF
IMPACTS WILL BE FELT STATEWIDE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR BIG ISLAND, A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI
COUNTY, AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU, KAUAI,
AND NIIHAU.
DISCUSSION
BREEZY AND DRY TRADE WINDS TODAY WITH LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM LALA. AS OF 11 AM HST,
TROPICAL STORM LALA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 150.9W AND MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST 14 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), LALA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY, THEN CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. IMPACTS FROM LALA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FOR THE
EASTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. REMEMBER IMPACTS CAN OCCUR WELL OUTSIDE THE CENTER OF THE
STORM. PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS, AND
PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS DESCRIBED BELOW.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (39
MPH TO 73 MPH) MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG ISLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH MAUI COUNTY BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS TO IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ITS
SURROUNDING WATERS (DUE TO A NON-NEGLIGABLE CHANCE OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS), A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI
COUNTY AND ITS SURROUNDING WATERS, AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU, KAUAI, AND NIIHAU AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHLY ENHANCED AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, EVEN WELL AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE CENTER.
HEAVY RAINFALL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED STARTING
WITH THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT, REACHING MAUI COUNTY ON SATURDAY, AND
OAHU AND KAUAI LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHERE MOIST TROPICAL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL PERSISTS
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, FLASH FLOODING AND RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY FAVORS THE BIG
ISLAND AND PARTS OF MAUI. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 10 TO 15 INCHES
OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON WINDWARD MAUI AND
UP 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER WINDWARD AREAS, LEEWARD AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD RISK. HEAVY RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY FROM
TONIGHT EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR OAHU, KAUAI, AND
NIIHAU FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...LALA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A LARGE EASTERLY
SWELL AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. SURF MAY BUILD ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES TODAY. VERY LARGE AND EXTREMELY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ON EXPOSED SOUTHEAST AND
EAST SHORES AND MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING SURF, SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION, AND OVERWASH ACROSS VULNERABLE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE,
MAINLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.
IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL NEW UPDATES WITH EACH OF THE ADVISORY
PACKAGES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), THE NWS
HONOLULU WILL CONTINUE DELAYING THE ISSUANCE OF OUR TYPICAL FORECAST
PACKAGE PRODUCTS (AFD, SFT, PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, ETC.) UNTIL AFTER
THE RELEASE OF NHC'S SUITE OF PRODUCTS, TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST
AND MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM LALA.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FOCUS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS, DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM LALA
WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND BRING DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS (MVFR TO IFR)
INCLUDING LOW VISIBILITY, LOW CEILINGS, HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS VERY STRONG WINDS LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL ISLANDS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD UP
THE ISLAND CHAIN.
AIRMET SIERRA IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THROUGH EAST
SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS ABOVE 2500 FEET DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND WEST OF MOUNTAINS DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL WINDS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN BY THE END OF TODAY, AN AIRMET FOR
STRONG WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT WILL LIKELY BE ADDED SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM LALA APPROACHES THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST.
MARINE
NE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AS TROPICAL STORM LALA PASSES OVER OR IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
WINDS PEAK FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI AND OAHU DURING
SUNDAY. HURRICANE WARNINGS, TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS, AND TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
INCLUDING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH SURF.
LALA WILL TRACK WNW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING THE WESTERN
ISLANDS BY MONDAY. TUESDAY INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK, A RETURN TO
EASTERLY TRADES IS EXPECTED.
SURF INITIALLY TRENDS SLOWLY UPWARD FOR E SHORES IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING TRADES, BUT WILL QUICKLY BUILD TONIGHT AS LALA
APPROACHES. THE HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR E FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AS WELL AS THE SE FACING COASTS
OF THE PUNA AND KA'U DISTRICTS WHERE SURF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED.
SURF IS LIKELY TO REACH THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR OAHU AND KAUAI
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAS POTENTIAL TO ECLIPSE THE
WARNING THRESHOLD FOR OAHU.
FOR NORTH SHORES, ANTICIPATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SWELL ENERGY
WRAPPING FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR S SHORES, SURF
WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
UNTIL ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING A SMALL BOOST TO EXISTING SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL RAISE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. CRITERIA FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ARE
NOT FORECAST, BUT IT'S CLOSE. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 5,000 TO 7,000 FEET TODAY. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND
RAINFALL WITH LALA WILL REMOVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM SATURDAY
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL OAHU-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-
HONOLULU METRO-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI
SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KOOLAU LEEWARD-KOOLAU WINDWARD-NIIHAU-OAHU
NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-WAIANAE COAST-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL OAHU-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-KAUAI EAST-
KAUAI MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KOOLAU
LEEWARD-KOOLAU WINDWARD-NIIHAU-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-WAIANAE
COAST-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KAHOOLAWE-KIPAHULU-
LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-LANAI SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-MAUI
CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI
SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM HST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND NORTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KIPAHULU-KOHALA-KONA-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR
BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-KIPAHULU-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-SOUTH HALEAKALA-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG
ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS-KOHALA-KONA.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY
LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD
WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...JVC
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