248
FXHW60 PHFO 150314
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
514 PM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM LALA WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS
THIS WEEKEND BUT WIND, RAIN AND SURF IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
STATEWIDE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BIG ISLAND AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM LALA. AS OF 5 PM HST, TROPICAL STORM
LALA WAS LOCATED NEAR AND MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER,
LALA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY, THEN CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST, WITH THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
REMEMBER IMPACTS CAN OCCUR WELL OUTSIDE THE CENTER OF THE STORM.
PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS, AND PREPARE FOR
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS DESCRIBED BELOW.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (39
MPH TO 73 MPH) MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG ISLAND, MAUI COUNTY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING, OAHU AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND KAUAI AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND
SURROUNDING WATERS DUE TO A NON-NEGLIGABLE CHANCE OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS (74 MPH OR GREATER). A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE STATE AND SURROUNDING WATERS. LOCALIZED
AREAS OF HIGHLY ENHANCED AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, EVEN WELL AWAY FROM THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER. THESE LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE FELT IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF LALA (I.E. TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING) AND SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND AS LAST MINUTE
PREPARATIONS ARE BEING MADE.
HEAVY RAINFALL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED STARTING
WITH THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT, REACHING MAUI COUNTY ON SATURDAY, AND
OAHU AND KAUAI LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHERE MOIST TROPICAL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL PERSISTS
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, FLASH FLOODING AND RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY FAVORS THE BIG
ISLAND AND PARTS OF MAUI. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 10 TO 15 INCHES
OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON WINDWARD MAUI AND
UP 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER WINDWARD AREAS, LEEWARD AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD RISK. HEAVY RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND FOR OAHU, KAUAI, AND
NIIHAU FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...LALA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A LARGE EASTERLY
SWELL AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. SURF MAY BUILD ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. A HIGH SURF WARNING IS POSTED FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF BIG ISLAND, MAUI, MOLOKAI AND OAHU, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
POSTED FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI. VERY LARGE AND EXTREMELY
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ON
EXPOSED SOUTHEAST AND EAST SHORES AND MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING SURF,
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION, AND OVERWASH ACROSS VULNERABLE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE, MAINLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. HIGHEST STORM
SURGE UP TO 3 FEET IS FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND.
IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL NEW UPDATES WITH EACH OF THE ADVISORY
PACKAGES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), THE NWS
HONOLULU WILL CONTINUE DELAYING THE ISSUANCE OF OUR TYPICAL FORECAST
PACKAGE PRODUCTS (AFD, SFT, PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, ETC.) UNTIL AFTER
THE RELEASE OF NHC'S SUITE OF PRODUCTS, TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST
AND MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM LALA.
TRADE WINDS WILL RESUME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF LALA'S DEPARTURE.
AVIATION
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST AS LALA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THREATS
WILL INCLUDE ALL OF THE FOLLOWING: LOW VISIBILITY, LOW CEILINGS,
HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY STRONG WINDS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS AT KONA
SATURDAY WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRICKY AS STRONG NORTH WINDS SUDDENLY
BECOME STRONG SOUTH WINDS SOMETIME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ONCE LALA
GETS WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
AIRMET SIERRA IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THROUGH EAST
SECTIONS OF MOLOKAI, LANAI, MAUI, AND BIG ISLAND ABOVE 2500 FEET
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND WEST OF MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS WIND
SPEEDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AN AIRMET FOR STRONG
WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
MARINE
NE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AS TROPICAL STORM LALA PASSES OVER OR IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. WINDS PEAK FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI AND OAHU DURING
SUNDAY. HURRICANE WARNINGS, TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS, AND TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT DANGEROUS CONDITIONS INCLUDING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH SURF. LALA
WILL TRACK WNW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING THE WESTERN ISLANDS
BY MONDAY. TUESDAY INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK, A RETURN TO EASTERLY
TRADES IS EXPECTED.
SURF INITIALLY TRENDS SLOWLY UPWARD FOR E SHORES IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING TRADES, BUT WILL QUICKLY BUILD TONIGHT AS LALA
APPROACHES. THE HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR E FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AS WELL AS THE SE FACING COASTS
OF THE PUNA AND KA'U DISTRICTS WHERE SURF WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SURF
IS ALSO FORECAST TO REACH LOW END WARNING CRITIERA FOR E FACING
SHORES OF OAHU AND THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR KAUAI. ACCORDINGLY,
THE HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OAHU AND A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR E FACING SHORES OF KAUAI.
FOR N SHORES, ANTICIPATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SWELL ENERGY
WRAPPING FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR S SHORES, SURF
WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
UNTIL ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING A SMALL BOOST TO EXISTING SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND RAINFALL WITH LALA WILL REMOVE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FROM SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL GO AWAY TONIGHT ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND
AND SPREAD WESTWARD SATURDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE
MOUNTAINS-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD
WEST-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI SOUTH-EAST
HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-KOOLAU WINDWARD-KOOLAU LEEWARD-
MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
KIPAHULU-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI
EAST-KAUAI SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-KOOLAU
WINDWARD-KOOLAU LEEWARD.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR
OLOMANA-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LANAI MAUKA-
KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-
KONA-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-MOLOKAI-LANAI
WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-
BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR BIG ISLAND-
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR
KAUAI EAST-KAUAI SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...JVC
FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
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