173
FXHW60 PHFO 150948
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1148 PM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM LALA WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS
THIS WEEKEND BUT WIND, RAIN AND SURF IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
STATEWIDE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BIG ISLAND AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE STATE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1102 PM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF DEEPER
CONVECTION SPINNING CYCLONICALLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
LALA. THE 11 PM HST NHC ADVISORY HAD THE CENTER OF LALA LOCATED
ABOUT 165 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH POINT. AHEAD OF THE
IMPENDING STORM, WINDS ACROSS THE STATE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO RAMP
UP WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND WIND
PRONE AREAS OF LEEWARD OAHU, MOLOKAI, LANAI, AND MAUI. GUSTS TO
40 TO 55 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT SELECT SENSORS ON THE BIG
ISLAND IN THE LEE OF THE KOHALA MOUNTAINS AND AROUND HAWAI'I
VOLCANOES NATIONAL PARK. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINBANDS
RAPIDLY PUSHING ON SHORE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST.
RAIN RATES, HOWEVER, HAVE REMAINED BELOW HALF AND INCH AND HOUR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS LALA APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL ON THE BIG ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES TO WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. SEE PREVIOUS AFD FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 514 PM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM LALA. AS OF 5 PM HST, TROPICAL STORM
LALA WAS LOCATED NEAR AND MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER,
LALA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY, THEN CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST, WITH THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
REMEMBER IMPACTS CAN OCCUR WELL OUTSIDE THE CENTER OF THE STORM.
PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS, AND PREPARE FOR
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS DESCRIBED BELOW.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (39
MPH TO 73 MPH) MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG ISLAND, MAUI COUNTY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING, OAHU AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND KAUAI AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND
SURROUNDING WATERS DUE TO A NON-NEGLIGABLE CHANCE OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS (74 MPH OR GREATER). A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE STATE AND SURROUNDING WATERS. LOCALIZED
AREAS OF HIGHLY ENHANCED AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, EVEN WELL AWAY FROM THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER. THESE LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE FELT IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF LALA (I.E. TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING) AND SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND AS LAST MINUTE
PREPARATIONS ARE BEING MADE.
HEAVY RAINFALL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED STARTING
WITH THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT, REACHING MAUI COUNTY ON SATURDAY, AND
OAHU AND KAUAI LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHERE MOIST TROPICAL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL PERSISTS
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, FLASH FLOODING AND RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY FAVORS THE BIG
ISLAND AND PARTS OF MAUI. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 10 TO 15 INCHES
OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON WINDWARD MAUI AND
UP 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER WINDWARD AREAS, LEEWARD AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD RISK. HEAVY RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND FOR OAHU, KAUAI, AND
NIIHAU FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...LALA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A LARGE EASTERLY
SWELL AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. SURF MAY BUILD ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. A HIGH SURF WARNING IS POSTED FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF BIG ISLAND, MAUI, MOLOKAI AND OAHU, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
POSTED FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI. VERY LARGE AND EXTREMELY
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ON
EXPOSED SOUTHEAST AND EAST SHORES AND MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING SURF,
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION, AND OVERWASH ACROSS VULNERABLE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE, MAINLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. HIGHEST STORM
SURGE UP TO 3 FEET IS FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND.
IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL NEW UPDATES WITH EACH OF THE ADVISORY
PACKAGES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), THE NWS
HONOLULU WILL CONTINUE DELAYING THE ISSUANCE OF OUR TYPICAL FORECAST
PACKAGE PRODUCTS (AFD, SFT, PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, ETC.) UNTIL AFTER
THE RELEASE OF NHC'S SUITE OF PRODUCTS, TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST
AND MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM LALA.
TRADE WINDS WILL RESUME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF LALA'S DEPARTURE.
AVIATION
TROPICAL STORM LALA WILL APPROACH BIG ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG, REACHING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN GUST AT THE BIG ISLAND, MAUI AND MOLOKAI
TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. SKY AND VISIBILITIES WILL
DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS WELL,
WITH MANY SITES FALLING TO MVFR DECKS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN
LIMITING VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS IFR CATEGORIES ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED FOR BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...FOR OAHU AND KAUAI SITES SATURDAY AND AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
AIRMET SIERRA IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THROUGH EAST
SECTIONS OF MOLOKAI, LANAI, MAUI, AND BIG ISLAND ABOVE 2500 FEET
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND WEST OF MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS WIND
SPEEDS STRENGTHEN, AN AIRMET FOR STRONG WINDS GREATER THAN 30
KNOTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 514 PM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
NE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AREAWIDE THROUGH SATURDAY AS TROPICAL
STORM LALA PASSES OVER OR IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WINDS
PEAK FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI AND OAHU DURING SUNDAY.
HURRICANE WARNINGS, TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS, AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT DANGEROUS CONDITIONS INCLUDING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH SURF. LALA WILL
TRACK WNW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY
MONDAY. TUESDAY INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK, A RETURN TO EASTERLY
TRADES IS EXPECTED.
SURF INITIALLY TRENDS SLOWLY UPWARD FOR E SHORES IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING TRADES, BUT WILL QUICKLY BUILD TONIGHT AS LALA
APPROACHES. THE HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR E FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AS WELL AS THE SE FACING COASTS
OF THE PUNA AND KA'U DISTRICTS WHERE SURF WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SURF
IS ALSO FORECAST TO REACH LOW END WARNING CRITIERA FOR E FACING
SHORES OF OAHU AND THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR KAUAI. ACCORDINGLY,
THE HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OAHU AND A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR E FACING SHORES OF KAUAI.
FOR N SHORES, ANTICIPATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SWELL ENERGY
WRAPPING FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR S SHORES, SURF
WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
UNTIL ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING A SMALL BOOST TO EXISTING SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 514 PM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND RAINFALL WITH LALA WILL REMOVE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FROM SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL GO AWAY TONIGHT ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND
AND SPREAD WESTWARD SATURDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL OAHU-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-
HALEAKALA SUMMIT-HONOLULU METRO-KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI
MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KIPAHULU-
KOOLAU LEEWARD-KOOLAU WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-LANAI
SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-NIIHAU-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WAIANAE COAST-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL OAHU-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-KAUAI EAST-
KAUAI MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KOOLAU
LEEWARD-KOOLAU WINDWARD-NIIHAU-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-WAIANAE
COAST-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR
KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-OLOMANA.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG
ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KAHOOLAWE-KIPAHULU-
KOHALA-KONA-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-LANAI SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD
WEST-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-
MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG
ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-KIPAHULU-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
SOUTH HALEAKALA-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG
ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS-KOHALA-KONA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR
KAUAI EAST-KAUAI SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD
WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...THOMAS
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...JVC
FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
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