837
WTPA43 PHFO 210236
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST THU AUG 20 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION POSITIONED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM JTWC AND HFO REMAIN T2.0/30 KT AND ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE ON FRIDAY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/12 KT, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE CYCLONE
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH SOME CROSS-TRACK SPREAD PERSISTS
AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST
REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ECMWF, AND THE GFS
SOLUTIONS, AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
WARM WATERS AND WITHIN AN ADEQUATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE VICINITY
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BEYOND ABOUT 72 H, INCREASING SHEAR AND A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING, AND REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE
AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.
3. THERE IS A RISK OF WIND AND WAVE IMPACTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. WATCHES
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY FRIDAY AND
RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND
ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLAN IN PLACE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 12.9N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 13.3N 146.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.9N 149.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.9N 151.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 16.6N 154.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.9N 157.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.6N 161.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 18.6N 166.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS
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