878
WTPA43 PHFO 210844
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST THU AUG 20 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS POSITIONED NORTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS STEADY SATELLITE PRESENTATION,
COMBINED WITH THE GENERALLY UNCHANGED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO,
JTWC, AND UW-CIMSS, SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE ON FRIDAY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/9 KT, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE CYCLONE
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH SOME CROSS-TRACK SPREAD PERSISTS
AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND LIES CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STAY OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AND SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS
THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.
3. THERE IS A RISK OF WIND AND WAVE IMPACTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. RESIDENTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND ENSURE THAT
THEY HAVE THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLAN IN PLACE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 14.3N 148.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 15.8N 153.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 16.3N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.6N 158.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.3N 163.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 18.3N 167.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS
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