197
WTPA43 PHFO 211459
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2026
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPER CONVECTIVE BANDS
ASSOCIATED TWO-C NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND JTWC ARE T2.0/30 KT AND T1.5/25 KT,
WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS, SUPPORTING AROUND 30 KT INTENSITIES AS WELL. BASED ON
THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. LATER
TODAY, NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE TWO-C.
THE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF 295/9
KT, AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS THE CYCLONE PROGRESSES SOUTH
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWCASES A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGING BUILDS IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC JUST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE,
AND A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE GUIDANCE OF THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE LATEST MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST TWO-C WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 H, AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
GENERALLY FAVORABLE. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT,
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF ITS LIFE CYCLE,
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER SSTS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL
HELP COUNTER ANY NEGATIVE SHEAR EFFECTS. HOWEVER, MULTI-MODEL
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE PORTRAY GRADUAL
WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD SUCCUMB TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.
2. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITHIN AND DOWNSLOPE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN ON THE BIG ISLAND.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE SYSTEM MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 13.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.7N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 151.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.9N 153.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.7N 164.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER PIERCE/CANGIALOSI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page