311
WTPA43 PHFO 212037
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM MOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2026
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED. DROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1002 MB AND THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
INFORMATION SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 40 KT, MAKING
THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM MOKE. MOKE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGES, WITH CURVED BANDS SHOWING IMPROVED
STRUCTURE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO
THE NORTH OF THE STORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THAT SHOULD
CAUSE MOKE TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CAUSE THE CORE OF SYSTEM TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE MOKE
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE A COMPACT STORM, NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED BASED ON THE CURRENT PREDICTIONS.
HOWEVER, THE STORM WILL VERY LIKELY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
WIND, RAIN, AND SURF IMPACTS, SEE THE KEY MESSAGES BELOW FOR
DETAILS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND REMAINS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
MOKE HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT REMAINS IN
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE STORM ENTRAINING DRY AIR WHILE IT MOVES INTO A
REGION OF HIGHER SHEAR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS, AND IT COULD EVEN DISSIPATE TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES AT THE
HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND MODEL SPREAD, THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOKE
WILL STAY BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.
2. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITHIN AND DOWNSLOPE OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE
BIG ISLAND.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 13.9N 147.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 148.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.7N 152.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 155.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.4N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.8N 160.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.7N 165.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 18.5N 169.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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