611
WTPA43 PHFO 220233
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM MOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2026
MOKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPART A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD TILT TO THE VORTEX, AS INDICATED BY TAIL DOPPLER
RADAR DATA, WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND
A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS
AND THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
MOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 295/10 KT. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF MOKE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE
CORE OF MOKE SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE COMPACT NATURE
OF THE CYCLONE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS
FOR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAINS VERY LOW. HOWEVER, THE
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF MOKE, COMBINED WITH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH THE ISLAND TERRAIN,
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THESE IMPACTS COULD BE AGGRAVATED BY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM LALA LAST WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE MOKE REMAINS IN GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE
MOKE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE SATURDAY, WITH RAIN SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND
OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.
2. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITHIN AND DOWNSLOPE OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
EXPOSED EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 14.0N 148.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.5N 149.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.2N 151.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.8N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 17.0N 161.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 18.2N 166.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 18.6N 171.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS
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