882
WTPA43 PHFO 221433
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM MOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2026
MOKE IS GAINING SOME STRENGTH THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CONVECTION
INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND EXTENT. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS
HAVE DEPARTED THE STORM, BUT DURING THEIR LAST PASS THROUGH THE
CENTER THEY MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 994 MB AND MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT INCREASING THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST JTWC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. THE AIRCRAFT
DATA AND LAST NIGHT'S ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED THAT THE
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII ARE A LITTLE LARGER ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND HAS CONTRACTED.
NONETHELESS, MOKE REMAINS A COMPACT TROPICAL STORM. THE NOAA AND AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
AGAIN LATER TODAY.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST,
OR 290/10 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF MOKE
ROUGHLY A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN WELL SOUTH OF THE SMALLER
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AFTER THAT. SINCE MOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
COMPACT, AND BECAUSE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
TRACK FORECAST, NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS APPEAR TO BE
NECESSARY FOR HAWAII. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN, LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION, MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE, SO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
FORECAST THERE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MOKE WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN
GENERALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO GRADUALLY LOSE STRENGTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST. IN FACT, MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW MOKE DISSIPATING TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MOKE WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE TONIGHT, WITH RAIN SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.
2. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITHIN AND DOWNSLOPE OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 14.8N 150.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.2N 151.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.6N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.0N 156.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.4N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 16.9N 161.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 17.4N 163.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.6N 169.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 19.4N 173.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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