044
WTPA43 PHFO 222038
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM MOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2026
MOKE HAS BEEN GENERALLY STEADY STATE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. THE STORM IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND ON ITS NORTH SIDE, AND MICROWAVE
IMAGES SHOW THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, BANDING FEATURES REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED SOUTH OF THE CENTER, AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THAT PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE STORM, AND SO FAR HAVE FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT. THIS ESTIMATE IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
10 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH
OF THE STORM. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF MOKE ROUGHLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
THEN WELL SOUTH OF THE SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AFTER THAT.
SINCE MOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMPACT, AND BECAUSE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM TRACK FORECAST, NO TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY FOR HAWAII. HOWEVER, THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH
TERRAIN, LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
CYCLONE, SO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST THERE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
MOKE WILL LIKELY REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY SOON, IF IT HAS NOT
ALREADY. THE CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF STABLE AIR AND AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE MOKE TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON SUNDAY, WITH THAT
TREND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, AND THIS FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
DISSIPATION IS NOW PREDICTED BY DAY 5, IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE PHYSICS-BASED AND AI MODELS THAT SHOW MOKE OPENING UP INTO A
TROUGH BY THEN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MOKE WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE TONIGHT, WITH RAIN SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.
2. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITHIN AND DOWNSLOPE OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM COULD PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF NEAR
EXPOSED EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 14.9N 151.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 15.3N 152.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 15.6N 155.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.0N 157.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.5N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.0N 162.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 17.5N 165.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 170.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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