929
FXHW60 PHFO 290101
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
301 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED SHOWERS
DIRECTED WINDWARD AND MAUKA DURING THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
BENIGN TRADE WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG
LONGWAVE RIDGING APPROACHING 598DM AT 500MB REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG
170W LONGITUDE. THIS IN TURN FAVORS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN MAINTENANCE OF BREEZY TRADES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA ZONES IS
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BECOMES
ENTRAINED IN THE TRADES, REACHING THE ISLANDS AROUND WEDNESDAY.
THE TROPICS REMAIN REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS AT THE
MOMENT BEING TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY NHC
TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH IT IS ALREADY AROUND
135W, OR ABOUT 1500 MILES SE OF HILO, WEAK STEERING WINDS DELAY ANY
POTENTIAL ARRIVAL TO/AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO BEYOND THE 7
DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z - MODERATE TRADES REGIME CONTINUES. MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING HEAVIER
SHOWERS/LOWER CIGS, HIGHEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOW CIGS AND SHRA OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES MOST AREAS
AND REFLECTED AS VCSH MOST TAFS.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB LEE OF TERRAIN
AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW DAYS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES HAVE PEAKED THROUGH THE DAY JUST
JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AS THE MODERATE MEDIUM TO LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY SLOWLY START TO DECLINE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL SIMILAR IN SIZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING SURF BACK UP TO NEAR HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN CHOPPY IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. A
SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD EAST SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM ISELLE HAS
FILLED IN AND WILL HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST
TO SOUTHEAST SWELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINS AT
HIGH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
TROPICAL STORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS RH REMAINS ELEVATED
COURTESY OF DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES. RAINFALL WILL BE
LIMITED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA ZONES DURING
THIS TIME. TODAY'S INVERSION IS OBSERVED AROUND 8KFT WITH ONLY
MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS EXPECTED.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...AR
FIRE WEATHER...JVC
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