865
FXHW60 PHFO 291912
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
912 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEK COULD INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROPICAL STORM
LOWELL REMAINS FAR SE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TRACK, TIMING, AND INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
HIGH AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THAT MOST OF THESE AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
A SLOT OF DRIER AIR SEEN IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE IS
EXPECTED TO FILTER THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, ALLOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF.
ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE REGION, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY
BE SUPPRESSED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT MINOR UPTICKS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AS
PLUMES OF MOISTURE FILTER THROUGH. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
THE EARLY MORNING 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOWED A
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INVERSION AT AROUND 6500-8500 FEET. THIS,
COMBINED WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE SEEN ON REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN BREEZY TRADES, HAS RESULTED IN AN UPTICK
IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SEVERAL WINDWARD
LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, PICKED UP
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE INCH SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING.
A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL RESUME TODAY AS MID- AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR THE AREA AND THE BAND OF
MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT EXITS THE REGION. BREEZY
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
HAVE MENTIONED, AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
COULD INCREASE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI CONTINUES TO TRACK TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL, WHICH AS OF THE 11 PM HST ADVISORY WAS LOCATED ABOUT
1430 MILES ESE OF HILO, MOVING WEST AROUND 8 MPH. LOWELL IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER, AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW TROPICAL STORM KARINA (ALSO IN THE EAST PACIFIC) COULD
INFLUENCE LOWELL'S STEERING FLOW. SHOULD STEERING FLOW WEAKEN AS
DEPICTED IN SOME GLOBAL MODELS, THIS WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL
ARRIVAL TO/AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
ISO-SCT -SHRA EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH
A DRYING TREND BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR LEE
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADE WIND PATTERN PREVAILS.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS/LOWER CIGS. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND
SHRA OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES MOST AREAS AND WITH VCSH FOR
THOSE TAFS.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB LEE OF TERRAIN
AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 406 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL MAY MOVE INTO THE HAWAIIAN REGION
POTENTIALLY BRINGING AN AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SOUTH SWELL THAT PEAKED JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ON
FRIDAY, WILL SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER SOUTH
SWELL WILL INCREASE SURF HEIGHTS STARTING ON TUESDAY, PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS, THEN SLOWLY FADING INTO
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN CHOPPY IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. A
SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD EAST SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM ISELLE HAS
FILLED IN AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 406 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, BUT DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO WINDWARD
AND MAUKA ZONES DURING THIS TIME. TODAY'S INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 8000 FEET OR SO, WITH ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY
FLUCTUATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM...FARRIS
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...APR
MARINE...BOHLIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page