653
FXHW60 PHFO 300112
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
312 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. TROPICAL STORM LOWELL REMAINS FAR ESE OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. LOOKING UPSTREAM
ON SATELLITE, A BAND OF OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DRIVE
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WITH RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE REGION, SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED, BUT MINOR UPTICKS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AS PLUMES OF MOISTURE FILTER
THROUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL DROP OVER THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AND BECOME LOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO TRACK TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC,
WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO AS OF
11 AM HST THIS MORNING. WITH A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, IT’S TOO
EARLY TO PREDICT ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO HAWAII AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VCSH EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE TRADE WIND
PATTERN PREVAILS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS/LOWER CIGS.
EXPECT LOW CIGS AND SHRA OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES MOST
AREAS.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB LEE OF TERRAIN
AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW DAYS.
MARINE
EXTENSIVE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MAINTAINS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THE S SWELL THAT PEAKED JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD ON
FRIDAY DECLINES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG PERIOD S SWELL
BRINGS INCREASING SURF TO S AND EXPOSED W SHORES BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY NEAR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. SURF ALONG E SHORES REMAINS CHOPPY DUE TO TRADES OVER
AND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. A SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD EAST SWELL FROM
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE HAS FILLED IN AND WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, AND WITH RHS EXPECTED TO DIP TO NEAR 45 PERCENT
ACROSS SOME LEEWARD COMMUNITIES EACH AFTERNOON, MODERATE TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. RAINFALL WILL BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7000 TO
8000 FEET, WITH ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...APR
MARINE...JVC
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