699
FXHW60 PHFO 300649
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
849 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY. TROPICAL STORM LOWELL REMAINS FAR ESE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
WE SAW A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW AREAS GUSTING
INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE. A 1035 MB HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE FOR SUNDAY.
WHILE WE SAW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS RIDE IN WITH THE BREEZY TRADES
THIS EVENING, ANOTHER FAIRLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SHOWERS
MOVE IN WITH THE BREEZY TRADES DUE TO A SUBTLE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
ALSO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH BREEZY TRADES AND SOME
PASSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR HAWAII
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF T.C LOWELL. CURRENTLY LOWELL IS
A TROPICAL STORM LOCATED NEAR 13N138W AND IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) HAS
LOWELL PASSING AROUND 325 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOWELL
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND EAST THAN THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK, THE 00Z
RUN FROM THE BETTER PERFORMING GDM MODEL SHOWS IT FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST (ROUGHLY 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND) THAN THE
OFFICIAL TRACK. SO AS YOU CAN SEE, THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN
THE FORECAST MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO HAWAII AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT BREEZY
SPEEDS, CREATING OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM OF MOUNTAINS. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ON WINDWARD SITES, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. LOW CEILINGS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD PREVENT SITES FROM GETTING BOGGED DOWN IN LONG- LASTING
MVFR.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE LEE OF
TERRAIN AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
EXTENSIVE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MAINTAINS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THE S SWELL THAT PEAKED JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD ON
FRIDAY DECLINES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG PERIOD S SWELL
BRINGS INCREASING SURF TO S AND EXPOSED W SHORES BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY NEAR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. SURF ALONG E SHORES REMAINS CHOPPY DUE TO TRADES OVER
AND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. A SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD EAST SWELL
FROM TROPICAL STORM ISELLE HAS FILLED IN AND WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 745 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
WE SAW A FAIRLY DRY DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE TODAY WITH
HUMIDITIES GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR SELECT LEEWARD
AREAS. ANOTHER BREEZY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH
HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S AGAIN FOR
A FEW LEEWARD AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE FUEL CONDITIONS DO NOT
REMAIN CRITICAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL WE
RECEIVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, MODERATE FIRE DANGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, SOME HIGHER MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION BETWEEN 6000 TO 7000 FEET THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE
THE INVERSION LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...JVC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page