972
FXHW60 PHFO 310111
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
311 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. TROPICAL STORM LOWELL REMAINS FAR ESE OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS TRACK AND
INTENSITY IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
BENIGN TRADE WIND PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS STRONG
LONGWAVE RIDGING APPROACHING 594DM REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR 170W
LONGITUDE BEFORE MIGRATING EAST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. THIS IN TURN FAVORS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
MAINTENANCE OF BREEZY TRADES THROUGH THIS TIME. AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE ORIGINATING
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ENTRAINS IN THE TRADES, REACHING THE
ISLANDS AROUND WEDNESDAY.
THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD THE FRIDAY
SEPT 4TH TO WEDNESDAY SEPT 9TH PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME, TC LOWELL
AND TC KARINA WILL MAKE THEIR APPROACHES TOWARD THE ISLANDS WITHIN
JUST A COUPLE DAYS OF EACH OTHER. DURING THIS TIME, UNCERTAINTY RUNS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL OWING TO WEAK STEERING FLOW FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL EMERGENCE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW OF THE ISLANDS THAT
WILL ALTER STEERING FLOW AND INTRODUCE A COMPONENT OF SHEARING AS
WELL. TC LOWELL AND TC KARINA BOTH CARRY POTENTIAL TO COME
PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME WINDOW. FOR
LOWELL, THE GFS REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SOLUTION
ENVELOPE WHILE THE NEW ECMWF, MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE, AND
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST REMAIN CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH. THE
FORECAST REMAINS SENSITIVE TO UPPER AIR FEATURES THAT HAVE YET TO
ACTUALLY FORM AND EVOLVE SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN AS MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK HAS EMERGED. AS TC LOWELL TRACKS
NW, KARINA WILL BE FAST APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WITH A NW TURN
EXPECTED AS WELL. TIMING OF THIS TURN WILL BE KEY AND REPRESENTS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR KARINA WHICH REMAINS ABOUT A WEEK
OUT. CONSULT NHC FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
AN APPROACH BY LOWELL THAT IS SUFFICIENTLY FAR SOUTH TO PREVENT
DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE ISLANDS WILL STILL BRING ELEVATED HUMIDITY
AND A HIGH LIKLIHOOD OF GUSTY WINDS FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH MODERATE STRENGTH TRADES,
LEADING TO OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM OF MOUNTAINS. VCSH FOR
THE WINDWARD PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BEST CHANCES
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE LEE OF
TERRAIN AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW DAYS.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL MAY
MOVE INTO THE HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WIND AND WEATHER IMPACTS AND TIMING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, INCLUDING
WIND WAVES AND COMBINED SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SPEED AND TRACK
OF LOWELL AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. OVERLAPPING SMALL, LONG- AND MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENERGY
WILL KEEP SMALL SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE NEXT BOOST IN SOUTH SWELL ENERGY WILL ARRIVE AND FILL IN FROM
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH AN 18 SECOND PERIOD.
THIS SWELL WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, JUST BELOW SOUTH SHORE ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS, AND THEN SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TRADE WIND SWELL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ELEVATED SURF
HEIGHTS ALONG ALL EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SURF
ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES COULD BECOME ESPECIALLY
ROUGH AND CHOPPY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOWELL PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS TC LOWELL PASSES SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 70S DURING THIS TIME IN
MAINTENANCE OF ELEVATED MIN RH VALUES. THE EXACT TRACK OF TC
LOWELL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE INVERSION WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 6K-7KFT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...TS
FIRE WEATHER...JVC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page