016
FXHW60 PHFO 311424
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
424 AM HST MON AUG 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS GENERALLY FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY. TROPICAL STORM LOWELL REMAINS OVER 700 MILES ESE OF THE BIG
ISLAND. LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS LOWELL PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOWELL PASSES
SOUTH OF THE STATE. FORECAST STILL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWELL AND KARINA WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING'S RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT HAVE
REMAINED ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT SEVERAL GAUGES AROUND THE STATE
DID SHOW 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
WHILE WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY,
ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE COULD MOVE IN TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE AROUND WEDNESDAY. SO OVERALL, EXPECT SOME PASSING
SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE BREEZY TRADES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS LOWELL PASSING LITTLE OVER 300 MILES
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A CAT 2
HURRICANE. WHILE PROBABILITIES FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REMAIN LOW OVER THE STATE, THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WINDY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS, ESPECIALLY ON THE
TAIL END OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BRING IN SOME ENHANCED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE FORECAST SPREAD DRASTICALLY INCREASES OVER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE STATE. LATEST
06Z RUN OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDM) MODEL IS GENERALLY SHOWING A
SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN.
WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON LOWELL PASSING SOUTH OF THE
STATE DURING THE WEEK, THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
OVER LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GDM
SHOWING A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN. ALSO DURING THIS TIME, WE COULD
SEE KARINA WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THE NHC PAGE FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR LOWELL AND KARINA.
AVIATION
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL
KEEP MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A UNSETTLED BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
DRIFT OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING, BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG THE WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS. THESE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL EASE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
FOR NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND DUE TO INCREASING LOW CLOUD AND SHOWER TRENDS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS. THIS TURBULENCE AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEK, KEEPING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS IN PLACE. TROPICAL STORM LOWELL, NOW IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC, IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT
AND WILL TRACK VERY CLOSE TO OR MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE
WATERS, BRINGING POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK OF LOWELL, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO GAIN LATITUDE, WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
THE WIND, WAVE, AND SURF FORECAST FOR THE REGION. BY THIS WEEKEND,
HURRICANE KARINA, APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE EAST, WILL
INCREASINGLY BE A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST OF SEAS AND SURF AS WELL.
OVERLAPPING SMALL, LONG- AND MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENERGY WILL
KEEP SMALL SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES EARLY THIS WEEK. A MODERATE
SOUTH SWELL ARRIVES TUESDAY AND FILLS IN AND PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY,
PUSHING SURF CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOUTH SHORE SURF THEN
SLOWLY DECLINES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SWELL FADES.
TRADE WIND SWELL ENERGY WILL KEEP ELEVATED SURF HEIGHTS ALONG ALL
EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SURF ALONG SOUTHEAST
FACING SHORES COULD BECOME ESPECIALLY ROUGH AND CHOPPY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS TROPICAL STORM LOWELL INTENSIFIES INTO A
HURRICANE AND TRACKS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. LATER IN THE WEEK, A
MEDIUM-PERIOD EAST SWELL ARRIVES FROM HURRICANE KARINA THAT COULD
PUSH EAST SHORE SURF TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM HST MON AUG 31 2026
BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN STRENGTHENS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TC LOWELL PASSES SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SELECT AREAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE FUEL CONDITIONS DO NOT
REMAIN CRITICAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL WE
RECEIVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, MODERATE FIRE DANGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW
LEEWARD AREAS COULD STILL SEE HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE MID 40S
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS A POCKET OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. THE EXACT
TRACK OF TC LOWELL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE INVERSION
WILL HOVER BETWEEN 5500 FT AND 6500 FT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...QUESADA
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