906
FXHW60 PHFO 311952
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
952 AM HST MON AUG 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS GENERALLY FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY. TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CURRENTLY OVER 700 MILES ESE OF THE
BIG ISLAND. LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS LOWELL PASSING SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOWELL PASSES
SOUTH OF THE STATE. FORECAST STILL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWELL AND KARINA WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THE STATE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED. WINDWARD AREAS OF KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND RECEIVED
BETWEEN 0.5 TO INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TONIGHT AS A BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. BREEZY EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD
AS A BROAD, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 424 AM HST MON AUG 31 2026
THIS MORNING'S RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT HAVE
REMAINED ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT SEVERAL GAUGES AROUND THE STATE
DID SHOW 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
WHILE WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY,
ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE COULD MOVE IN TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE AROUND WEDNESDAY. SO OVERALL, EXPECT SOME PASSING
SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE BREEZY TRADES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS LOWELL PASSING LITTLE OVER 300 MILES
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A CAT 2
HURRICANE. WHILE PROBABILITIES FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REMAIN LOW OVER THE STATE, THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WINDY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS, ESPECIALLY ON THE
TAIL END OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BRING IN SOME ENHANCED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE FORECAST SPREAD DRASTICALLY INCREASES OVER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE STATE. LATEST
06Z RUN OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDM) MODEL IS GENERALLY SHOWING A
SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN.
WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON LOWELL PASSING SOUTH OF THE
STATE DURING THE WEEK, THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
OVER LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GDM
SHOWING A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN. ALSO DURING THIS TIME, WE COULD
SEE KARINA WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THE NHC PAGE FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR LOWELL AND KARINA.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 424 AM HST MON AUG 31 2026
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL
KEEP MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A UNSETTLED BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
DRIFT OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING, BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG THE WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS. THESE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL EASE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
FOR NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND DUE TO INCREASING LOW CLOUD AND SHOWER TRENDS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS. THIS TURBULENCE AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEK, KEEPING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS IN PLACE. TROPICAL STORM LOWELL, NOW IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC, IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT
AND WILL TRACK VERY CLOSE TO OR MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE
WATERS, BRINGING POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK OF LOWELL, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO GAIN LATITUDE, WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
THE WIND, WAVE, AND SURF FORECAST FOR THE REGION. REGARDLESS OF
LOWELL'S FINAL PATH, TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEK LIKELY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, AND LOWELL TO THE SOUTH. BY THIS WEEKEND,
HURRICANE KARINA, APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE EAST, WILL
INCREASINGLY BE A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST OF SEAS AND SURF AS WELL.
OVERLAPPING SMALL, LONG- AND MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENERGY WILL
KEEP SMALL SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES TODAY. A MODERATE SOUTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN PEAK ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING SURF HEIGHTS TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
SWELL WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, MEDIUM PERIOD ENERGY FROM LOWELL COULD
START FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORES. SWELL FROM
LOWELL COULD PEAK THIS WEEKEND, AND ITS SIZE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. CURRENTLY THE
SWELL FROM LOWELL, BASED ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST, IS ESTIMATED TO
ELEVATE SURF BUT STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
TRADE WIND SWELL ENERGY WILL KEEP ELEVATED SURF HEIGHTS ALONG ALL
EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK, A
MEDIUM-PERIOD EAST SWELL ARRIVES FROM HURRICANE KARINA THAT COULD
PUSH EAST SHORE SURF TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM HST MON AUG 31 2026
BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN STRENGTHENS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TC LOWELL PASSES SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SELECT AREAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE FUEL CONDITIONS DO NOT
REMAIN CRITICAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL WE
RECEIVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, MODERATE FIRE DANGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW
LEEWARD AREAS COULD STILL SEE HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE MID 40S
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS A POCKET OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. THE EXACT
TRACK OF TC LOWELL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE INVERSION
WILL HOVER BETWEEN 5500 FT AND 6500 FT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...ALMANZA
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...TSAMOUS
FIRE WEATHER...KINO
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