086
FXHW60 PHFO 020210
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
410 PM HST TUE SEP 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TRADE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY. HURRICANE LOWELL IS ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HILO AS OF 2 PM HST, AND IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH AT SOME POINT, MOST
LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. KARINA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TOWARD THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT THEN
TURN NORTHWEST AND MISS US TO THE NORTH.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED TRADE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
MOST NOTABLY ACROSS MOLOKAI. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY, CURRENTLY AVERAGING 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS 20
TO 35 MPH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE
TRACKS OF HURRICANES LOWELL AND KARINA. LOWELL IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE TRAVELING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. MODELS
INDICATE THAT IT MAY TURN SHARPLY NORTH AT SOME POINT, MOST LIKELY
WHEN WELL WEST OF THE MAIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLIER TURN WHICH MAY BRING IT NEAR OR OVER
ONE OF THEM. KARINA IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO MOVE WNW THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN BEGIN A MORE NW TRACK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TRACK
WILL TAKE IT NORTH OF THE STATE. A VERY FEW MODELS (OUT OF
HUNDREDS) BRING IT WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO THE MAIN ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH ODDS ARE GOOD THAT NEITHER STORM WILL DIRECTLY STRIKE
POPULATED ISLANDS, IT WOULD BE WISE TO STAY AWARE OF NEW FORECASTS
IN THE COMING DAYS. AND FINALLY, TROPICAL STORM MARIE HAS FORMED
NEAR 15N 110W (A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE MEXICAN COAST). THIS
STORM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 DAYS AWAY FROM POTENTIALLY MOVING NEAR
HAWAII, AND WILL NOT BE DISCUSSED IN DEPTH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS LOWELL MOVES CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS DUE TO AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, LOWELL TO THE SOUTH). THIS WILL BRING WIND
SPEEDS UP CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL BY LATE WEDNESDAY, AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED IF CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER. SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MOIST SURFACE TROUGH
(UNRELATED TO CURRENT TROPICAL SYSTEMS). AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
TO THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS WILL DECREASE. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RATHER TYPICAL NUMBER OF SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN NORMAL, AND HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO MAKE IT BRIEFLY OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS, AS THEY ARE
CARRIED ALONG BY MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS.
PLEASE VISIT THE HURRICANES.GOV PAGE FOR THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST FOR LOWELL AND KARINA.
AVIATION
00Z TAFS - NEAR TERM UPDATES AS MORNING SHOWERS FADED WAS TO
INCREASE THE TRADES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THEY'RE HIGHER THAN
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
BRIEF SHOWERS THROUGH THE TRADES WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD
EXPOSURES, MAUKA AND HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. HURRICANE LOWELL IS FORECAST TO PASS FAR SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, LATE WEEK TRADE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
HURRICANE LOWELL AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTH.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH TERRAIN. AIRMET TANGO WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REST OF THIS WEEK, KEEPING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS IN PLACE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED AS TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
STATE TO STRONG TO POSSIBLE LOCALLY GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HURRICANE LOWELL PASSES FAR SOUTH. THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH WATERS AS THE CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REMAINS
JUST OUTSIDE THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF LOWELL, ESPECIALLY LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO GAIN
LATITUDE, WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE WIND, WAVE,
AND SURF FORECAST FOR THE REGION. ADDING TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE KARINA FROM THE
EAST.
A MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN
OVERNIGHT AND PEAK WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES
SHOULD PEAK BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS SWELL WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SMALL, MEDIUM-
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOWELL HAS STARTED TO FILL IN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE COMBINED SWELLS WILL KEEP SOUTH
SHORE SURF ELEVATED NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. BEYOND
THAT POINT, THE SURF FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOWELL, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW SHARPLY AND QUICKLY
THE CYCLONE TURNS TO THE NORTH.
TRADE WIND SWELL ENERGY WILL KEEP ROUGH, CHOPPY SURF ALONG ALL
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. TONIGHT, A SMALL,
MEDIUM- PERIOD EAST SWELL ARRIVES FROM HURRICANE KARINA THAT WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK AND COULD PUSH EAST SHORE SURF TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND
REMAIN BREEZY INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS TO OR OVER 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA TO BE
REACHED, AND FUELS ARE CURRENTLY RATED AS NOT CRITICAL. THEREFORE,
THE STRONG WINDS WILL NOT TRIGGER FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. THE TRADE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO BE 5500 FT TO 6500 FT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...PARKER
AVIATION...MEHLE
MARINE...ALMANZA
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