880
FXHW60 PHFO 020646
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
846 PM HST TUE SEP 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS
THE STATE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. MOISTURE BEING CARRIED IN
ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOSTLY TO THE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. HURRICANE LOWELL IS ABOUT
480 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO BOTH
LOWELL AND KARINA REMAINING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING OVER
THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THIS EVENING. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TO THE WEST.
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE UPTICK, IN PART DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS BETWEEN A HIGH FAR TO OUR NORTH,
HURRICANE LOWELL TO OUR SOUTH, AND THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE ISLANDS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY, AND REMAIN
STRONG AND GUSTY INTO FRIDAY, DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE HIGH FAR TO THE
NORTH AND LOWELL TO THE SOUTH. HURRICANE KARINA IS ABOUT 1550
MILES EAST OF HILO THIS EVENING, AND THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) HAS IT MOVING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE LIFTING FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS KARINA MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT WILL HELP TO DISRUPT THE STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST FORECAST FOR LOWELL FROM THE NHC
WILL HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE A NORTHWARD MOTION TAKES OVER. THIS NORTHWARD PULL
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE INTERACTION OF LOWELL WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THE MODELS DEPICT AS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. A LOT OF DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, COUPLE WITH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS, REMAIN TO BE
IRONED OUT. THAT BEING SAID, AN INCREASING NUMBER OF MODELS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT A NORTHWARD TURN IS TO BE EXPECTED, SO STAY
TURNED FOR UPDATES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE
WINDIEST AREAS. WILL BE MONITORING WINDS TONIGHT AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY SHOULD BE POSTED AS PART OF
THE MORNING PACKAGE. AFTER THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GO BACK TO
MORE TYPICAL SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER AS THE WINDS INCREASE, SOME OF THOSE
SHOWERS COULD BE BLOWN TO LEEWARD AREAS.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACKS OF BOTH LOWELL AND
KARINA THIS FAR OUT, THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE STILL BEING FLUSHED OUT. IN GENERAL A GENERAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN IS IN THE GRIDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO MOISTURE
REACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH FROM LOWELL, AND BEING CARRIED
IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
PLEASE VISIT THE HURRICANES.GOV PAGE FOR THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
FOR LOWELL AND KARINA.
AVIATION
PREVAILING VFR. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DECKS AND VISIBILITIES IN BRIEF SHOWERS THAT WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD EXPOSURES AND UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN. HURRICANE
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO PASS FAR SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, REGIONAL TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
AS A RESULT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HURRICANE LOWELL
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTH.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH TERRAIN. AIRMET TANGO WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT DECKS TO UNDER
3,000 FT WITHIN UPPER ELEVATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POTENTIAL LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING AIRMET SIERRA FOR
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, KEEPING FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS TRADE
WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE STATE TO BECOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HURRICANE
LOWELL PASSES FAR SOUTH. THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTH WATERS AS THE CORE OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK OF LOWELL, ESPECIALLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO GAIN LATITUDE, WHICH WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE WIND, WAVE, AND SURF FORECAST FOR THE
REGION. ADDING TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF HURRICANE KARINA FROM THE EAST.
A MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN
OVERNIGHT AND PEAK WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES
SHOULD PEAK BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS SWELL WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SMALL, MEDIUM-
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOWELL WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THESE COMBINED SWELLS WILL KEEP SOUTH SHORE SURF ELEVATED
NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. BEYOND THAT POINT, THE SURF
FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOWELL, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW SHARPLY AND QUICKLY THE CYCLONE TURNS TO THE
NORTH.
TRADE WIND SWELL ENERGY WILL KEEP ROUGH, CHOPPY SURF ALONG ALL
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. TONIGHT, A SMALL,
MEDIUM- PERIOD EAST SWELL ARRIVES FROM HURRICANE KARINA THAT WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK AND COULD PUSH EAST SHORE SURF TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
STRONG AND GUSTY INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS TO, OR OVER 50 MPH, WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA TO BE
REACHED, AND FUELS ARE CURRENTLY RATED AS NOT CRITICAL. THEREFORE,
THE STRONG WINDS WILL NOT TRIGGER FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. THE TRADE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO BE 5500 FT TO 6500 FT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FARRIS
FIRE WEATHER...M BALLARD
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