066
FXHW60 PHFO 022006
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1006 AM HST WED SEP 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE TRADE WINDS ARE SLOWLY EDGING UPWARDS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO STRONG AND GUSTY LEVELS OVER THE WINDIER SPOTS ACROSS
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND TODAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTICK
ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU AS WELL, BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE
SOUTHERN ISLANDS. THE UPTICK IN WINDS IS IN RESPONSE TO HURRICANE
LOWELL, CURRENTLY ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTH OF HILO, TRACKS WEST, AND
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE BEING CARRIED
IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOSTLY TO THE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN FOR THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO BOTH LOWELL
AND KARINA REMAINING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OVER THE COMING DAYS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE BULK OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OAHU AND KAUAI. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS RANGE
FROM .5 TO 1.60 INCHES. WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS MOSTLY
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF OAHU. RAIN RATES ARE TRENDING
DOWN SO NOT THINKING A ADVISORY IS WARRANTED QUITE YET FOR THESE
WETTER AREAS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS
TRENDING DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
AS THIS TROUGH MOVES WEST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM HST WED SEP 2 2026
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND STARTING AT NOON TODAY. THE ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 6
AM FRIDAY, BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AND/OR EXPANDED TO
ADDITIONAL AREAS. WINDS WERE ALREADY APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS
YESTERDAY, AND THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS FROM EAST TO WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH. AFTER THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
MOVES TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, AND HURRICANE
LOWELL TO THE SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO THE
TRADE WINDS INCREASING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER SHOWERS, AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
HURRICANE LOWELL IS ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) WILL HAVE LOWELL PASSING A 400 MILES OR SO
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BEFORE IT TURNS
TO THE NORTH. THIS NORTHWARD TURN OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE DETERMINED
BY THE INTERACTION OF LOWELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THE MODELS
DEPICT AS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. A LOT OF
DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, COUPLED WITH
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS, REMAIN TO BE IRONED OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHEN THAT NORTHWARD TURN WILL HAPPEN, SO WE WILL BE CONTINUING
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE MODIFICATIONS AS NEEDED.
MEANWHILE, HURRICANE KARINA IS ABOUT 1490 MILES EAST OF HILO EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NHC HAS IT MOVING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE LIFTING FURTHER TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AS KARINA MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT WILL HELP TO DISRUPT THE
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW, HELPING OUR WINDS TO RETURN INITIALLY TO
MORE MODERATE LEVELS. EARLY NEXT WEEK IT COULD LEAD TO LIGHTER
WINDS.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACKS OF BOTH LOWELL AND
KARINA THIS FAR OUT, THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE STILL BEING FLUSHED OUT. IN GENERAL A GENERAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN IS IN THE GRIDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO MOISTURE
REACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH FROM LOWELL, AND BEING CARRIED
IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
PLEASE VISIT THE HURRICANES.GOV PAGE FOR THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
FOR LOWELL AND KARINA.
AVIATION
WET START TO THE DAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE
ISLANDS LEADING TO MVFR AND POCKETS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
SATELLITE SHOWS UP STREAM CLEARING SO SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
19-20Z WITH MORE VFR CONDITIONS. STILL COULD SEE SOME VCSH/MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ON WINDWARD LOCATIONS AND UPPER SLOPES. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LLWS WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR HOG AND HKO. HURRICANE LOWELL IS FORECAST TO PASS FAR
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
WESTERLY TRACK, REGIONAL TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG PER A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE FAR NORTH.
AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR IFR AND SHRA FOR KAUAI OAHU
MOLOKAI MAUI THROUGH 20Z.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH TERRAIN. AIRMET TANGO WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MARINE
AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND INTERACTS WITH HURRICANE LOWELL PASSING TO THE SOUTH,
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO BECOME
FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL WATERS AND EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTH WATERS WHILE THE CORE OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK OF LOWELL, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SEE HURRICANE CONDITIONS. HOW CLOSE
IT GETS TO THE STATE, IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. ADDING TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE
KARINA FROM THE EAST.
A MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL PEAK LATER TODAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS AND HOLD INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MODERATE, SHORT TO MEDIUM-
PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOWELL WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY
AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RISING
SURF ASSOCIATED WITH LOWELL THROUGH TONIGHT AND COULD SPREAD TO
THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THESE COMBINED SWELLS WILL KEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORES SURF ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BEYOND THAT POINT, THE SURF FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOWELL, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WESTERN EXPOSURES NEXT WEEK DUE
TO THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF LOWELL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TRADE WIND SWELL ENERGY WILL KEEP ROUGH, CHOPPY SURF ALONG ALL EAST-
FACING SHORES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. A SMALL, MEDIUM- PERIOD
EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE KARINA BEGAN FILLING IN OVERNIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, POSSIBLY PUSHING EAST
SHORE SURF TO ADVISORY, OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS BY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 319 AM HST WED SEP 2 2026
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY INTO
FRIDAY. GUSTS TO, OR OVER 50 MPH, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
WINDY AREAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO
HIGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA TO BE REACHED, AND FUELS ARE
CURRENTLY RATED AS NOT CRITICAL. THEREFORE, THE STRONG WINDS WILL
NOT TRIGGER FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TRADE INVERSION
IS FORECAST TO BE 5500 FT TO 6500 FT TODAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-KAHOOLAWE-KIPAHULU-KOHALA-
LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-LANAI SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-MAUI
CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI
SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...ALMANZA
DISCUSSION...M BALLARD
AVIATION...MEHLE
MARINE...KINO
FIRE WEATHER...M BALLARD
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