867
FXHW60 PHFO 030225
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
425 PM HST WED SEP 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE AS A
STRONG HIGH SITS NORTH OF THE STATE AND MAJOR HURRICANE LOWELL
PASSES ROUGHLY 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF OAHU, MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE PORTIONS OF KAUAI MAY BE ADDED TO THE WIND
ADVISORY. TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO BOTH LOWELL
AND KARINA NEARING THE STATE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE AS MAJOR
HURRICANE LOWELL TRACKS WEST ROUGHLY 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND A STRONG HIGH REMAINS FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. VERY WINDY AND GUSTY TRADES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER OAHU THIS
EVENING, THUS HAVE ADDED PORTIONS OF OAHU TO THE WIND ADVISORY.
PORTIONS OF KAUAI MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY THURSDAY AS
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE STATE.
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. EXPECT
TYPICALLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES WITHIN
THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CARRY IN TO THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWERS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A LOW LEVEL BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RIDE THROUGH THE TRADES.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) LATEST FORECAST ON LOWELL HAS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING A WESTWARD TRACK FAR SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A MAJOR HURRICANE CAN
IMPACT THE STATE NEXT WEEK. WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM AND UPDATE FORECAST AS NECESSARY. NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE
A PLAN FOR WORST CASE SCENARIO IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO TAKE ACTION
IF AND WHEN NEEDED.
MEANWHILE, HURRICANE KARINA IS ABOUT 1360 MILES EAST OF HILO
THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NHC HAS IT
MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE LIFTING FURTHER TO
THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND WEAKENING. AS KARINA MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT WILL
HELP TO DISRUPT THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW, HELPING OUR WINDS TO
RETURN INITIALLY TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS. EARLY NEXT WEEK IT COULD
LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM KARINA COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH LOWELL KEEPING CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST TRACKS OF BOTH LOWELL AND KARINA THIS FAR OUT,
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW AS DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE STILL BEING FLUSHED OUT.
PLEASE VISIT THE HURRICANES.GOV PAGE FOR THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
FOR LOWELL AND KARINA.
AVIATION
WET START TO THE DAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE
ISLANDS LEADING TO MVFR AND POCKETS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
SATELLITE SHOWS UP STREAM CLEARING SO SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
19-20Z WITH MORE VFR CONDITIONS. STILL COULD SEE SOME VCSH/MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ON WINDWARD LOCATIONS AND UPPER SLOPES. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LLWS WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR HOG AND HKO. HURRICANE LOWELL IS FORECAST TO PASS FAR
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
WESTERLY TRACK, REGIONAL TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG PER A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE FAR NORTH.
AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR IFR AND SHRA FOR KAUAI OAHU
MOLOKAI MAUI THROUGH 20Z.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH TERRAIN. AIRMET TANGO WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MARINE
AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND INTERACTS WITH HURRICANE LOWELL PASSING TO THE SOUTH,
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO BECOME
FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LIKELY GET EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY. THE OFFSHORE WATERS
IS CURRENTLY SEEING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS WHILE THE CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REMAINS
JUST OUTSIDE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK OF LOWELL, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SEE HURRICANE CONDITIONS. HOW CLOSE
IT GETS TO THE STATE, IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. AS FOR HURRICANE
KARINA, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KARINA WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE LOWELL WILL STEADILY FILL IN ACROSS REST OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EXPOSURES THROUGHOUT
THE STATE. SWELLS FROM LOWELL WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AND WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE, THE FORECAST FOR SWELLS AND SEAS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOWELL, CONFIDENCE
IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF EXTRA-LARGE SURF
(EXCEEDING WARNING LEVELS) ALONG SOUTH AND WESTERN EXPOSURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE CURRENT MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL WILL PEAK TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
A LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE KARINA WILL
STEADILY FILL IN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL SURF OR WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES BY THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS TO,
OR OVER 50 MPH, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA TO BE REACHED, AND FUELS ARE CURRENTLY
RATED AS NOT CRITICAL. THEREFORE, THE STRONG WINDS WILL NOT
TRIGGER FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TRADE INVERSION IS
FORECAST TO BE 6000 FT TO 7000 FT TODAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KONA-KAUAI
SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-MOLOKAI WEST-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND
SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR WAIANAE COAST-CENTRAL
OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-
KOOLAU LEEWARD-MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...ALMANZA
AVIATION...MEHLE
MARINE...KINO
FIRE WEATHER...ALMANZA
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