462
FXHW60 PHFO 031502
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
502 AM HST THU SEP 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE STATE AS A
STRONG HIGH SITS NORTH OF THE STATE AND MAJOR HURRICANE LOWELL
PASSES SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THIS GRADIENT IS GENERATING WINDY AND GUSTY TRADES OVER MAUI
COUNTY, THE BIG ISLAND, AND OVER OAHU. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS ALONG
WINDWARD LOCATIONS. BY THIS WEEKEND, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PROJECTS HURRICANE LOWELL TO TAKE A RATHER SHARP TURN NORTHWARD.
LOWELL COULD BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES
NEAR THE WESTERNMOST MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE HURRICANE, LOWELL COULD BRING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF HAWAII EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A GOOD TIME
FOR ALL RESIDENTS TO ENSURE THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN AND
SUPPLY KIT IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE DISTINCT EYE OF MAJOR
HURRICANE LOWELL WELL SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND, ALONG
WITH ALL ACCOMPANYING DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY PATCHES OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE TC HAVE MANAGED TO SPREAD
OVER BIG ISLAND, MAUI COUNTY, AND OAHU. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 5
AM HST NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE, LOWELL IS 450 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF HILO AND MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.
ACROSS THE STATE, ISOLATED TRADE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
WINDWARD LOCATIONS WITH RAIN RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10" AN
HOUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO PASS
OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ONTO LEEWARD SIDES. GUSTY WINDS
HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED
ACROSS THE STATE AS HAWAII REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF HAWAII AND LOW PRESSURE FROM LOWELL'S
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH
OVER THE MOST WIND PRONE PASSES, RIDGELINES, AND TO THE LEE OF
TERRAIN. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SELECT PORTIONS OF
OAHU, MAUI COUNTY, AND BIG ISLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THIS PRODUCT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY IF CURRENT GUIDANCE HOLDS. SIMILAR LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WINDWARD
SHOWERS.
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE LOWELL. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN
INCREASING OF A NORTHWARD JOG OF THE MAJOR HURRICANE IN RESPONSE
TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW, NORTH OF HAWAII. WHILE IT IS STILL
TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE, LOWELL
COULD BRING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF
HAWAII EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOWELL THROUGH THE UPCOMING LABOR
DAY WEEKEND, LISTEN TO THE ADVICE OF OFFICIALS, AND ENSURE THEY
HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN AND SUPPLY KIT IN PLACE.
PLEASE VISIT THE HURRICANES.GOV PAGE FOR THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
FOR LOWELL.
AVIATION
VCSH ALONG WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS LOCALLY GOING DOWN TO MVFR. ELEVATED WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD; MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS OVER 30
KTS AT SOME TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING PHNL, PHMK, AND
PHOG. VCSH RETURNS TO THE SAME AREAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALLY MVFR CIGS RETURNING.
HURRICANE LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS WESTERLY TRACK, REGIONAL TRADE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG PER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HURRICANE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTH.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH TERRAIN. AIRMET TANGO WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HURRICANE LOWELL IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE TWO WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TO FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH 6AM FRIDAY WITH
AN EXTENSION POSSIBLE.
WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK OF LOWELL, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SEE HURRICANE CONDITIONS. HOW CLOSE
IT GETS TO THE STATE, IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. AS FOR HURRICANE
KARINA, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KARINA WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE LOWELL WILL STEADILY FILL IN ACROSS REST OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EXPOSURES THROUGHOUT THE STATE.
SWELLS FROM LOWELL WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TODAY AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE, THE FORECAST FOR
SWELLS AND SEAS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOWELL, CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF EXTRA-LARGE SURF (EXCEEDING WARNING LEVELS)
ALONG SOUTH AND WESTERN EXPOSURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
THE CURRENT MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL DECLINE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE KARINA WILL
STEADILY FILL IN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL SURF OR WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES BY THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS TO,
OR OVER 50 MPH, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA TO BE REACHED, AND FUELS ARE CURRENTLY
RATED AS NOT CRITICAL. THEREFORE, THE STRONG WINDS WILL NOT
TRIGGER FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TRADE INVERSION IS
FORECAST TO BE 6000 FT TO 7000 FT TODAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KONA-KAUAI
SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-MOLOKAI WEST-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND
SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR WAIANAE COAST-CENTRAL
OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-
KOOLAU LEEWARD-MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...ROSER
MARINE...WALSH
FIRE WEATHER...THOMAS
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