682
FXHW60 PHFO 031930
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST THU SEP 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HURRICANE LOWELL AND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE TAPERING THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA. HURRICANE LOWELL WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN END OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING POSSIBLE SURF, RAIN, WIND
AND FLOODING IMPACTS PARTICULARLY TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. THE EXTENT OF IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF LOWELL.
DISCUSSION
HURRICANE LOWELL IS 450 MILES SSW OF HILO AND 605 MILES SSE OF
LIHUE AT THE 5 AM HST NHC ADVISORY. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
RESULTING FROM THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH THE NORTH IS RESULTING IN STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING IN
WITH THE TRADES WILL FOCUS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES TODAY AND
FRIDAY, BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH LEEWARD SIDES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF OAHU, MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY, A WEEKEND HURRICANE KARINA WILL
BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND LIKELY WEAKEN THE SPEEDS
A BIT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TRADE WINDS AND NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE LOWELL, CURRENTLY A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE AND AROUND 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIHUE. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TRACK FORECAST MOVES LOWELL SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN ABRUPT NORTHWARD TURN AND INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER A
DIRECT IMPACT WILL OCCUR OR NOT, LOWELL WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
IMPACTS TO THE STATE INCLUDING STORM SURGE, HIGH SURF, WIND, AND
RAINFALL IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF HAWAII, PARTICULARLY AS IT MOVES
CLOSEST TO KAUAI COUNTY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENT OF
THESE IMPACTS COULD RANGE FROM MINOR TO MAJOR DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL PATH OF THE STORM, AND MORE SPECIFICALLY WHEN THE ABRUPT
TURN TO THE NORTH OCCURS. REGARDLESS, LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BE A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY. COASTAL INUNDATION
COULD ALSO BE EXACERBATED BY THE PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY. INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOWELL THROUGH THE UPCOMING LABOR
DAY WEEKEND, LISTEN TO THE ADVICE OF OFFICIALS, AND ENSURE THEY
HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN AND SUPPLY KIT IN PLACE.
PLEASE VISIT THE HURRICANES.GOV PAGE FOR THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
FOR LOWELL.
ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTLY IN THE
WAKE OF LOWELL, BUT LINGERING SHOWER BANDS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
DAY. KARINA WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AND EVENTUALLY BE
ABSORBED INTO LOWELL NORTH OF THE STATE MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO TRADES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
ANOTHER WET START (WET RUNWAYS FOR PHNL AND PHLI) WITH VCSH TO
SHRA ALONG WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS MOSTLY VFR WITH LOWER MVFR DUE TO
SHOWERS/CLOUDS. STILL PROJECTING STRONGER WINDS TODAY WITH WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 KTS, ESPECIALLY PHNL, PHMK, AND PHOG. VCSH RETURNS
TO THE SAME AREAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR
CIGS RETURNING.
HURRICANE LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS WESTERLY TRACK, REGIONAL TRADE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG PER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HURRICANE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTH.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH TERRAIN. AIRMET TANGO WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HURRICANE LOWELL IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE TWO WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TO FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH 6AM FRIDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF LOWELL BRINGING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS.
HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE STATE, IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. AS FOR
HURRICANE KARINA, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KARINA WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE LOWELL HAS FILLED IN THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN AT HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) LEVEL CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SWELLS FROM LOWELL WILL GRADUALLY VEER
FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH, THEN EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE, THE FORECAST FOR SWELLS AND SEAS FOR NEXT
WEEK WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
LOWELL, CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
EXTRA- LARGE SURF (EXCEEDING WARNING LEVELS) ALONG SOUTH AND
WESTERN EXPOSURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE CURRENT
MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
A LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE KARINA WILL
STEADILY FILL IN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL SURF OR WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES BY THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS TO,
OR OVER 50 MPH, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA TO BE REACHED, AND FUELS ARE CURRENTLY
RATED AS NOT CRITICAL. THEREFORE, THE STRONG WINDS WILL NOT
TRIGGER FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TRADE INVERSION IS
FORECAST TO BE 6000 FT TO 7000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KONA-KAUAI
SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-MOLOKAI WEST-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND
SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR WAIANAE COAST-CENTRAL
OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-
KOOLAU LEEWARD-MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...MEHLE
MARINE...SHIGESATO
FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
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