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FXHW60 PHFO 040110
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
310 PM HST THU SEP 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HURRICANE LOWELL AND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE TAPERING THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA. HURRICANE LOWELL WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN END OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING POSSIBLE SURF, RAIN, WIND
AND FLOODING IMPACTS PARTICULARLY TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. THE EXTENT OF IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF LOWELL.
DISCUSSION
HURRICANE LOWELL IS 465 MILES SSW OF HILO AND 585 MILES SSE OF
LIHUE AT THE 11 AM HST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) ADVISORY.
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS RESULTING FROM THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THE NORTH IS RESULTING
IN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING IN WITH THE TRADES WILL FOCUS ACROSS
WINDWARD SLOPES BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH LEEWARD SIDES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY GOES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF OAHU, MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY, A WEEKEND HURRICANE KARINA WILL
BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND LIKELY WEAKEN THE SPEEDS
A BIT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TRADE WINDS AND NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE LOWELL, CURRENTLY A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST MOVES LOWELL SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN ABRUPT NORTHWARD TURN AND INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER A
DIRECT IMPACT WILL OCCUR OR NOT, LOWELL WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
IMPACTS TO THE STATE INCLUDING STORM SURGE, HIGH SURF, WIND, AND
RAINFALL IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF HAWAII, PARTICULARLY AS IT MOVES
CLOSEST TO KAUAI COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENT OF THESE IMPACTS
COULD RANGE FROM MINOR TO MAJOR DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL PATH OF
THE STORM, AND MORE SPECIFICALLY WHEN THE ABRUPT TURN TO THE
NORTH OCCURS. REGARDLESS, LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BE A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY. COASTAL INUNDATION COULD ALSO
BE EXACERBATED BY THE PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR MONDAY. INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOWELL THROUGH THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY
WEEKEND, LISTEN TO THE ADVICE OF OFFICIALS, AND ENSURE THEY HAVE
THEIR HURRICANE PLAN AND SUPPLY KIT IN PLACE.
PLEASE VISIT THE HURRICANES.GOV PAGE FOR THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
FOR LOWELL.
ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTLY IN THE
WAKE OF LOWELL, BUT LINGERING SHOWER BANDS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
DAY. KARINA WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AND EVENTUALLY BE
ABSORBED INTO LOWELL NORTH OF THE STATE MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO TRADES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW MVFR SHOWERS ON WINDWARD LOCATIONS. ENHANCED TRADES WILL
KEEP STRONGER GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. VCSH RETURNS TO THE WINDWARD EXPOSURES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR CIGS RETURNING.
HURRICANE LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS WESTERLY TRACK, REGIONAL TRADE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG PER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HURRICANE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTH.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH TERRAIN. AIRMET TANGO WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY,
HURRICANE LOWELL IS PASSING NEAR 450 NM SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO WILL
STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO FRESH TO
LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM HURRICANE LOWELL FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AS HURRICANE LOWELL TURNS
NORTH, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY. HOW CLOSE IT
GETS TO THE STATE, IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. AS FOR HURRICANE
KARINA, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KARINA WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE LOWELL HAS FILLED IN AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE HSA HAS BEEN EXTENDED DUE TO A REINFORCING SOUTH SWELL FROM
HURRICANE LOWELL AND WILL PEAK FRIDAY MORNING. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE,
THE FORECAST FOR SWELLS AND SEAS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLY DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOWELL, CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF EXTRA- LARGE SURF
(EXCEEDING WARNING LEVELS) ALONG SOUTH AND WESTERN EXPOSURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COINCIDING ALSO WITH MONTHLY HIGH TIDES, THIS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS TO HARBOR ENTRANCES, CHANNELS, AS
WELL AS COASTAL PROPERTIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE INCLUDING ROADWAYS.
A LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE KARINA WILL
STEADILY FILL IN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL SURF OR WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES BY THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS TO,
OR OVER 50 MPH, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA TO BE REACHED, AND FUELS ARE CURRENTLY
RATED AS NOT CRITICAL. THEREFORE, THE STRONG WINDS WILL NOT
TRIGGER FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TRADE INVERSION IS
FORECAST TO BE 6000 FT TO 7000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KONA-KAUAI
SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-MOLOKAI WEST-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND
SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR WAIANAE COAST-CENTRAL
OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-
KOOLAU LEEWARD-MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...MEHLE
MARINE...SHIGESATO
FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
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