319
FXHW60 PHFO 081825
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
825 AM HST TUE SEP 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE LOWELL IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING, AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS CANCELLED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR OAHU. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE QUICKLY DECLINING ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND LOCALLY GUSTY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI COUNTY. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH AT
LEAST TODAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS. TRADE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WET. DRIER TRADE
WIND WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS 8 AM HST, HURRICANE LOWELL CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LIHUE. WINDS HAVE
DECLINED CONSIDERABLY, AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
CANCELLED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR OAHU. DECLINING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY AND LOCALLY GUSTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DROPPED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. KAUAI RECEIVED
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT, BUT AS LOWELL HAS
LIFTED NORTHWARD, SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN LIGHT AND FOCUSED ON
INTERIOR TERRAIN. OVER THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, LESS THAN 2
INCHES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. NO ORGANIZED MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY, AND WHILE THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE DECLINING,
LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER TERRAIN ON ANY ISLAND
TODAY.
LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, LEAVING THE ISLANDS UNDER A HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A BROAD BUT WEAK AREA OF
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THAT COULD MAINTAIN SOME
THREAT OF FLOODING. ACROSS OAHU AND KAUAI, EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWERS,
SOME HEAVY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, BRINGING BACK A WEAK TRADE WIND PATTERN. MOISTURE MAY
STILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA, SO EXPECT SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PERSIST.
AVIATION
HURRICANE LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE
OF HAWAII. DEEP AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER EVEN AFTER LOWELL BEGINS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AWAY
FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY.
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE STATE. MVFR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
STEADILY DECREASE TODAY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR LOW MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
AFFECTING THE ISLAND OF KAUAI AND OAHU OVER AND NW THRU NE OF
ISLAND MOUNTAINS. A STRONG SURFACE WIND AIRMET REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR KAUAI FOR WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS DUE TO HURRICANE
LOWELL. THESE AIRMETS WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING.
MARINE
HURRICANE LOWELL IS NOW LIFTING NORTH OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU. AS A
RESULT, THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS WEST OF KAUAI, AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELED FOR WATERS ELSEWHERE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE HURRICANE WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS, FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING. FOR
THE WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS, HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL THE CYCLONE EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST SWELL FROM HURRICANE LOWELL IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING SURF TO PORTIONS OF KAUAI COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGE TO COASTAL PROPERTIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE, PARTICULARLY TO
THOSE AREAS ALONG THE COAST EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURF WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY MID- LATE MORNING AND THEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WHICH IS
PEAKING TODAY WILL THEN KEEP SURF ELEVATED JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE THE SOUTHWEST SWELL FROM LOWELL FADES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SOME SOUTH SHORE
SURF AS IT GRADUALLY FADES THROUGH THURSDAY.
A MEDIUM-PERIOD EAST SWELL FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM KARINA
COMBINED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE GENERATED BY HURRICANE
LOWELL WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THIS MORNING, BUT WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY TONIGHT. SURF
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES IS ALSO EXPERIENCING A SOLID RISE DUE
TO LOWELL, WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THIS SWELL WILL QUICKLY FADE THROUGH THE WEEK AS LOWELL WEAKENS
AND TRACKS AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LOWELL. EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OR WEAK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS-
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KONA-KOHALA-
KAUAI SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-MOLOKAI
SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI
SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-KIPAHULU-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-
SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR OLOMANA-KAUAI
EAST-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...BOHLIN/WROE
MARINE...TSAMOUS
FIRE WEATHER...THOMAS
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