971
FXHW60 PHFO 090206
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
406 PM HST TUE SEP 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS HURRICANE
LOWELL MOVES FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND
MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE KAUAI MOUNTAINS, RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TONIGHT. A DIFFUSE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ONTO BIG
ISLAND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS,
WHILE SEA BREEZES TRIGGER SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE STATE LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WET.
DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
HURRICANE LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE,
AND ITS CENTER IS NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY 275 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF KAUAI. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, PRODUCING RELATIVELY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS BIG ISLAND, WHERE ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER DAYTIME HEATING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING A LAND
AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN TO PRODUCE INTERIOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM KAUAI
TO MAUI OVERNIGHT, BUT A DIFFUSE BAND OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
NEAR AND JUST EAST OF BIG ISLAND COULD MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THERE. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED FOR MOST ISLANDS BUT WAS
EXTENDED FOR BIG ISLAND, AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT WESTWARD AND MAY HELP TRIGGER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
STATE, LAND BREEZES MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ISOLATED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE, THE RISK
HAS BEEN DEEMED TOO LOW TO CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH.
TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WET. DRIER TRADE
WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CREATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE TRADE WIND
FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
HURRICANE LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE
OF HAWAII. DEEP AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER EVEN AFTER LOWELL BEGINS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AWAY
FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY.
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE STATE. MVFR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DECREASE TODAY, THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 20-30KT REMAIN
POSSIBLE. FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HINT OF THE TRADE WINDS RETURNING LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR LOW MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
AFFECTING THE ISLAND OF KAUAI AND OAHU OVER AND NW THRU NE OF
ISLAND MOUNTAINS. THIS AIRMET MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
HURRICANE LOWELL IS NOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, AND
WITH IT ALL OF THE TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS AROUND
KAUAI DUE TO 10 FOOT SEAS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED LATER
TONIGHT AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DROP RAPIDLY. FOR THE WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT
AS LOWELL MOVES FURTHER NORTH, AND THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED AT THAT TIME. FOR TOMORROW, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LARGE AND ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH SHORES HAVE ALREADY DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS MORNING'S PEAK, (BARBER'S POINT REPORTED
25 FEET) AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE
HIGH SURF COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DROPPING
RAPIDLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE HIGH SURF WARNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES HAS BEEN CANCELLED, AS WELL AS THE ADVISORY FOR THE EAST
FACING SHORES. AN EXCEPTION HOWEVER IS FOR THE BIG ISLAND WHERE
SOUTHWEST SWELL COULD STILL IMPACT SHORELINES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE SIZED MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LINGER FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, KEEPING SOUTH SHORE SURF HEIGHTS FROM DIPPING
BELOW THE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES (5 FT) UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN SURF
HEIGHTS WILL BECOME SMALL.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TOMORROW BUT STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THAT SWELL WILL THEN
FADE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURF ALONG NORTH FACING
SHORES EXPERIENCED A SOLID RISE DUE TO LOWELL THIS MORNING. THIS
SWELL WILL QUICKLY FADE THROUGH THE WEEK AS LOWELL WEAKENS AND
TRACKS AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE RATHER
LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OR WEAK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BIG ISLAND.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR KONA-KOHALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...TSAMOUS
FIRE WEATHER...WROE
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