047
WTPA44 PHFO 090241
TCDCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST TUE SEP 08 2026
THE STRUCTURE OF LOWELL CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND WIND SHEAR AFFECT THE TROPICAL STORM. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED,
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION, A
STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LOWELL AND IS CONTRIBUTING
TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER, GENERALLY BETWEEN 46 AND 50
KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO PROVIDED VALUABLE GUIDANCE IN
REFINING LOWELL'S WIND RADII.
LOWELL IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 13 KT, STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND RIDGING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH LOWELL AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS LOWELL BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND BEGINS TO MOVE
MORE IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
CONSIDERABLY MORE COMPLEX BEYOND 72 H AS LOWELL ENCOUNTERS ANOTHER
ELONGATED UPPER-LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOWELL SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING BOTH THE TIMING OF
THIS TURN AND HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, WITH THE FORECAST LYING
CLOSEST TO HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS.
MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT GRADUAL WEAKENING OF LOWELL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT
LOWELL COULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BY
THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE SECOND ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY HELP REINVIGORATE CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WHICH COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR LOWELL TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AROUND DAY 5. CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONGER-RANGE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POST-STORM SAFETY: FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND AVOID
AREAS OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND FLOODING. ENSURE GENERATORS ARE
PROPERLY VENTILATED AND PLACED OUTSIDE AT LEAST 20 FEET AWAY FROM
DWELLINGS AND GARAGES TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. DURING
CLEAN UP, BE CAREFUL WHEN USING CHAINSAWS AND POWER TOOLS. DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION.
2. THE THREAT OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWELL WILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF URBAN AND
LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAY PROMOTE INSTANCES OF
NEW FLOODING OR PROLONG ANY ONGOING FLOODING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.
3. LARGE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALONG EXPOSED
COASTS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 26.2N 161.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 27.7N 162.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 28.7N 164.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 28.8N 166.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 28.5N 169.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 28.5N 170.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.1N 171.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 31.8N 172.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 32.9N 175.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ADAMS
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