080
FXHW60 PHFO 090631
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
831 PM HST TUE SEP 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL MOVES FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A
SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI, RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TONIGHT. A DIFFUSE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ONTO BIG
ISLAND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS,
WHILE SEA BREEZES TRIGGER SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE STATE LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WET.
DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND EXISTING OUR
OFFSHORE WATERS ZONE, SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI. AN AREA OF ENHANCED RESIDUAL MOISTURE CAN ALSO BE SEEN
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM LOWELL DOWN TO OVER NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND. THIS MOISTURE, ALONG WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEAST FLOW, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS GOING TONIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA ON MAUI. ELSEWHERE, A DRIER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DOMINATE AND
ALLOW FOR MORE LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
DIURNAL HEATING, ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL DRAPED OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, WILL AID IN MORE ROBUST SHOWERS
OVER THE BIG ISLAND INTERIOR, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER HALEAKALA ON
MAUI, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. THUS, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MAINLY
INTERIOR REGIONS OF LANAI, MOLOKAI, OAHU, AND KAUAI. THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST LOOKED IN DECENT SHAPE, SO NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE MADE ON THIS EVENING UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 PM HST TUE SEP 8 2026
HURRICANE LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE,
AND ITS CENTER IS NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY 275 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF KAUAI. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, PRODUCING RELATIVELY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS BIG ISLAND, WHERE ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER DAYTIME HEATING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING A LAND
AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN TO PRODUCE INTERIOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM KAUAI
TO MAUI OVERNIGHT, BUT A DIFFUSE BAND OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
NEAR AND JUST EAST OF BIG ISLAND COULD MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THERE. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED FOR MOST ISLANDS BUT WAS
EXTENDED FOR BIG ISLAND, AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT WESTWARD AND MAY HELP TRIGGER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
STATE, LAND BREEZES MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ISOLATED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE, THE RISK
HAS BEEN DEEMED TOO LOW TO CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH.
TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WET. DRIER TRADE
WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CREATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE TRADE WIND
FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
LOWELL NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS, AND THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, MOSTLY OVER KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND WHERE
POCKETS OF MOISTURE ARE MOVING THROUGH. AIRMET SIERRA FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ISLANDS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER ANTICIPATING THE AIRMET
TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY AIRMETS
FOR TURBULENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS NOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WATERS AROUND KAUAI FOR 10 FOOT SEAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DROP RAPIDLY. FOR THE WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT
AS LOWELL MOVES FURTHER NORTH, AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS LIKELY TO END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR WEDNESDAY, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES HAS DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN CHOPPY FROM A MIX OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST
SWELLS FROM LOWELL THAT CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FADE. THESE ARE STILL
PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS EVENING, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE
MORNING HOURS. A MODERATE, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
KEEPING SOUTH SHORE SURF HEIGHTS FROM DIPPING BELOW THE SEPTEMBER
AVERAGES (5 FT) UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN SURF HEIGHTS WILL BECOME
SMALL.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES REMAINS ELEVATED TONIGHT BUT WILL
APPROACH MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SWELL WILL THEN
FADE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES EXPERIENCED A SOLID RISE DUE TO LOWELL THIS MORNING.
THIS SWELL WILL QUICKLY FADE THROUGH THE WEEK AS LOWELL WEAKENS
AND TRACKS AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 406 PM HST TUE SEP 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE RATHER
LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OR WEAK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG
ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-KOHALA-KONA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR KOHALA-KONA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...THOMAS
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...M BALLARD
MARINE...QUESADA
FIRE WEATHER...WROE
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