232
WTPA44 PHFO 090851
TCDCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 08 2026
PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LOWELL HAS
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ADVERSELY AFFECTED
BY DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED
UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED RECENTLY,
HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45-55
KT, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE LOWER IN THE RANGE
OF 41-46 KT. SINCE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED STRONGER WINDS
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ONLY LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
LOWELL IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 12 KT, AS THE STORM IS
BEING GUIDED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY, A MORE GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO LOSE SPEED ON THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONE
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
THERE IS A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AROUND 72 H, AS
LOWELL APPROACHES ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS THE CYCLONE TURNING TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ABOUT THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE STORM
WILL GO. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS, THERE IS A HIGHER
THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE NHC TRACK FORECAST. THIS
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION, BUT NUDGED TO THE
RIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR, THUS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR. THE SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT LOWELL COULD LOSE MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION BY
THURSDAY, AND POTENTIALLY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD HELP
LOWELL BUILD SOME DEEP CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IN
TURN COULD CAUSE SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM, BUT THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STUCTURE OF LOWELL AT THAT TIME.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PORTION
OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND CALLS FOR LOWELL TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AROUND DAY 5.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POST-STORM SAFETY: FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND AVOID
AREAS OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND FLOODING. ENSURE GENERATORS ARE
PROPERLY VENTILATED AND PLACED OUTSIDE AT LEAST 20 FEET AWAY FROM
DWELLINGS AND GARAGES TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. DURING
CLEAN UP, BE CAREFUL WHEN USING CHAINSAWS AND POWER TOOLS. DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION.
2. LARGE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALONG EXPOSED
COASTS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 27.3N 161.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 28.4N 162.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 29.0N 165.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 28.8N 167.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 28.7N 169.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 171.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 30.3N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 32.6N 173.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 33.6N 174.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER KATZ/REINHART
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