810
WTPA44 PHFO 091440
TCDCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST WED SEP 09 2026
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGEST THAT
LOWELL'S CONVECTIVE SHIELD IS CONTINUING TO DETERIORATE AS DRIER AIR
WRAPS INTO THE STORM'S CORE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND JTWC CLASSIFIED THE SYSTEM AT T3.0/45 KT,
WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED FROM 44-51 KT. USING
THESE ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 330/11 KT. A MID-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO ITS EAST, IS DRIVING LOWELL'S NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. AS THE LOW DISSIPATES, LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGH,
THEN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE EXHIBITS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOWELL BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES, RESULTING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THUS, THE LATEST
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT GIVEN THE SPREAD THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 48 H, A DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS FURTHER
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 36 H, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW
COULD BRIEFLY ENHANCE LOWELL'S CONVECTION. HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE
BROADER ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD, WITH THE
INTENSITY MERELY LEVELING OFF JUST AFTER 36 H DURING THE ANTICIPATED
WINDOW OF FAVORABLE TROUGH INTERACTION. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND LOWELL IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POST-STORM SAFETY: FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND AVOID
AREAS OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND FLOODING. ENSURE GENERATORS ARE
PROPERLY VENTILATED AND PLACED OUTSIDE AT LEAST 20 FEET AWAY FROM
DWELLINGS AND GARAGES TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. DURING
CLEAN UP, BE CAREFUL WHEN USING CHAINSAWS AND POWER TOOLS. DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 28.1N 162.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 28.8N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 29.0N 166.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 28.8N 168.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 28.9N 170.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 29.6N 171.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 31.0N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 32.7N 173.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 34.0N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY
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