734
WTPA44 PHFO 100851
TCDCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST WED SEP 09 2026
PROXY-VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT LOWELL IS
PRODUCING MINIMAL CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM. THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPOSED AND BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
PLENTY OF DRY AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE CENTER. NONETHELESS, A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 50-53 KT VECTORS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, INDICATING THAT LOWELL WAS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BASED ON THIS DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN SET TO 55 KT.
THE STORM IS CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE WEST AROUND 280 DEGREES AT 12
KT. CURRENTLY THE CYCLONE IS BEING GUIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD KEEP IT ON THIS WESTWARD
HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT, A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF AND BECOME
THE MAIN STEERING FLOW FOR LOWELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHERLY
TURN FOR THE STORM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CUTOFF LOW AROUND 36-48
H. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, LOWELL SHOULD TAKE UP A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THEN, ONCE THE
CUTOFF LOW PULLS AWAY COMPLETELY, THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION OF LOWELL
WILL LIKELY BE STUCK BETWEEN TWO LOW-LEVEL RIDGES, THUS LEAVING THE
STORM TO DRIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTH AS A REMNANT LOW. THE CURRENT
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, HOWEVER THERE
WERE SOME SMALL NUDGES MADE TO THE NEW TRACK FORECAST AFTER 36 H.
THIS PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE MOST RECENT GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDMI)
AND HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AIDS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE WIND SHEAR, PLENTY OF DRY AIR, AND MARGINAL SSTS.
THEREFORE, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 H.
BASED ON THE SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF,
LOWELL COULD LACK ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER, SOME POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CUTOFF LOW COULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION,
WHICH IN TURN COULD ALLOW FOR LOWELL TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
THROUGH BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. AFTER 60-72 H, THE CYCLONE WILL BE ON
THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
STORM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL AS THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE THAT THE CONVECTION FAILS TO
REGENERATE DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND SHEAR, AND THUS LOWELL COULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS NO NET INTENSITY CHANGE BETWEEN 24-72 H, ALTHOUGH
SMALL FLUCTUATIONS COULD OCCUR AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POST-STORM SAFETY: FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND AVOID
AREAS OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND FLOODING. ENSURE GENERATORS ARE
PROPERLY VENTILATED AND PLACED OUTSIDE AT LEAST 20 FEET AWAY FROM
DWELLINGS AND GARAGES TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. DURING
CLEAN UP, BE CAREFUL WHEN USING CHAINSAWS AND POWER TOOLS. DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 29.2N 166.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.2N 168.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 29.3N 170.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 30.1N 171.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 31.4N 172.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 33.0N 172.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 33.4N 173.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 32.8N 175.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z 31.4N 175.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER KATZ/REINHART
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