712
FXHW60 PHFO 101956
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
956 AM HST THU SEP 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
STATE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVER THE BIG
ISLAND. DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER IN TODAY INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING A RETURN OF A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MORNING SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAST OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERING FROM LOWELL MOVING SOUTHWEST AND OUT
OF THE STATE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND
AND SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW INTO FRIDAY,
ALLOWING FOR DEW POINTS TO LOWER BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
TODAY AND PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND
WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE'S CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE PRECIPITABLE WATER DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION
THE TRADE WINDS HAVE SET UP, WHICH COMBINED WITH MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED IN HAS ALLOWED FOR ONGOING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUDS FOCUSED ON ON THE WINDWARD, UPSLOPE
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THIS IS RESULTING IN CEILINGS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR. THE LOWER CEILINGS, AND AT TIMES REDUCED
VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS,
HOWEVER, EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH A DRYING
TREND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS FOR THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z.
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED FOR THE TAF SITES, WITH THE FORECAST
SHOWING DRIER TRADE WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR TAF SITES ON THE BIG
ISLAND.
FOR SITES PMDY AND NSTU, LOWER CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WINDS RESPECTIVELY, SO TRENDING THESE WINDS WEAKER,
AND LATER IN THE DAY.
MARINE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY AND THEN PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT MODERATE MID-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH BELOW AVERAGE SURF
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO EAST AND
NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED BY FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONES. SURF
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES CONTINUES TO RECEIVE A SMALL BUMP DUE TO
LOWELL. THIS SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL QUICKLY FADE,
ALLOWING SURF TO BECOME TINY ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES TODAY AS
LOWELL WEAKENS AND TRACKS WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OR WEAK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SS
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...WALSH
FIRE WEATHER...SS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page