095
WTPA44 PHFO 102044
TCDCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST THU SEP 10 2026
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS DEPICTS
LOWELL'S CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER A SMALL AREA WITHIN ITS
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS HEAVILY SHEARED, WITH
LOWELL'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED AND DISPLACED FROM THE CONVECTION.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND JTWC PROVIDED
LOWELL WITH A FINAL T-NUMBER OF 1.5 AND 2.0, RESPECTIVELY, WHICH
WOULD PUT THE INTENSITY AT AROUND 25-30 KT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
EARLIER HIGHER SCATTEROMETER WINDS, AND SOME LINGERING CONVECTION
CURRENTLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 45
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION WAS ESTIMATED AT 270/10 KT. LOWELL CONTINUES TO
BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST, WITH A CUTOFF LOW BASED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN AND TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWELL'S FORWARD MOTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT FINDS ITSELF WEDGED BETWEEN TWO LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGES. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WIDE SPREAD
BEYOND 36 H, DIFFERING IN BOTH HOW THE CUTOFF LOW ALTERS LOWELL'S
TRACK AND HOW SLOW THE STORM MOTION BECOMES ONCE IT'S CENTERED
BETWEEN THE RIDGES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WAS LITTLE CHANGED
ACROSS THE FIRST 36 H, WITH THE MAIN CHANGES BEYOND THAT PERIOD.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY PULLS LOWELL A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE CUTOFF LOW BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW MOTION AS LOWELL
BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THIS TURN TO THE SOUTH WAS MADE
SLIGHTLY WIDER TO REFLECT THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
LOWELL REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, AND MARGINAL SSTS. DESPITE
THIS ENVIRONMENT, INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MAX WINDS AROUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING THAT THE CUTOFF
LOW MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE LOWELL'S CONVECTION. SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF, HOWEVER, SUGGEST THAT LOWELL'S
CONVECTION MAY WITHER BEFORE THEN, WITH POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION
POTENTIALLY OCCURRING BEFORE THIS INTERACTION TAKES PLACE. THE
LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS LOWELL'S INTENSITY RELATIVELY STEADY
FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO, BEFORE SHOWING A BRIEF INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AT 48 H. THEREAFTER, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST HAS LOWELL BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL IN 60 H, A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
THOUGH IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER THAN SHOWN
HERE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POST-STORM SAFETY: FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND AVOID
AREAS OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND FLOODING. ENSURE GENERATORS ARE
PROPERLY VENTILATED AND PLACED OUTSIDE AT LEAST 20 FEET AWAY FROM
DWELLINGS AND GARAGES TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. DURING
CLEAN UP, BE CAREFUL WHEN USING CHAINSAWS AND POWER TOOLS. DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 29.0N 168.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 29.0N 170.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 29.6N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 31.2N 172.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 32.8N 173.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 33.9N 174.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/1800Z 33.8N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 32.9N 175.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z 31.0N 175.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER EVANS/PAPIN
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