113
FXHW60 PHFO 120105
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
305 PM HST FRI SEP 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID TRADE WIND FLOW IS FILLING IN TODAY.
LIMITED SHOWERS WILL FOCUS WINDWARD AND MAUKA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL LIFT OUT OF THE DEEP TROPICS EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TRADES, INCREASED HUMIDITY, AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
A NUMBER OF NOTEWORTHY FEATURES ON INFRARED IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.
TO THE NORTHWEST, A DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED A
CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP AS IT FEASTS ON THE REMNANTS OF LOWELL WHICH
ITSELF IS IN THE LATE STAGES OF ITS BAROCLINIC TRANSFORMATION. THE
LINGERING BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAS SUPPLIED THE ISLANDS
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS EASED WEST OF
THE ISLANDS LAST NIGHT, AND DEWPOINTS WILL ACCORDINGLY FALL MORE
UNIFORMLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AS MODERATE TRADES ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF SAID AIRMASS OVER LEEWARD BIG ISLAND MEANS
TODAY'S AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY YET PROVIDE A LOCALIZED THREAT
FOR NUISANCE FLOODING OVER DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH & SOUTH
KONA DISTRICTS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, SATELLITE APPEARANCE
OF CLOUDS IN THIS AREA LOOK STABLE AND RADAR RETURNS AT PRESS TIME
ARE BASICALLY NIL.
NEAR 05N/150W, OR ABOUT 1000 MILES SSE OF HILO, A DISORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS. NHC OFFERS A 20% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT, ENHANCED MOISTURE AND A MODEST BOOST IN TRADE WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE DEEP TROPICS.
GFS OFFERINGS OF VERY HUMID CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MID-70S
DEWPOINTS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK APPROPRIATE AND WILL
PROVIDE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN SUPPORT OF ENHANCED TRADE WIND
SHOWER COVERAGE.
EYES REMAIN FIXED ON TROPICAL STORM NORBERT, 2000 MILES ESE OF HILO,
AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES WESTWARD AT 14 MPH. ANY POTENTIAL ARRIVAL IN
THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS AT LEAST 10 DAYS AWAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS CHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH AT THAT LEAD TIME
AND IT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS, OR LACK
THEREOF, IMPROVES.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO
USHER IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO SEE ISOLATED SEA
BREEZES IN THE MOST WIND-PROTECTED LEEWARD AREAS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REMAINS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, BESIDES IN ANY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THAT REGION.
MARINE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE TRADE WINDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY NEXT WEEK TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SMALL MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD ENERGY SLOWLY FADES.
CURRENTLY A LOW IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC NEAR AUSTRALIA AND NEW
ZEALAND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELL
FOR HAWAII LATE NEXT WEEK.
EAST FACING SHORES WILL ALSO REMAIN AT SMALL TO MODERATE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS. FLAT TO TINY SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND THE EFFECTS OF RECENT RAINFALL, EVEN AS
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS BELOW 50 PERCENT OVER MANY
LEEWARD AREAS. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
OR WEAK THROUGH MONDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...SHIGESATO
FIRE WEATHER...JVC
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