896
FXHW60 PHFO 131916
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
916 AM HST SUN SEP 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRIER TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND AND NORTHEAST MAUI. WINDS WERE AVERAGING 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW SPOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH. THESE RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS FORECAST. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS DRIER TRADE WIND
WEATHER PREVAILS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TODAY
THANKS TO THESE WINDS, WITH THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS
HAVING A 15-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREAS
REMAIN DRY. IF ANYTHING, WE'LL LIKELY SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS SKIRT BY.
IN FACT, SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOP AND GENERALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD OR BANK UP ALONG THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF ISLANDS. IN TERMS OF WINDS TODAY, LOOK FOR WEAK
TO MODERATE TRADES TO CONTINUE. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH
WITHIN MORE WIND- PROTECTED LEEWARD AREAS TO INITIATE LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHICALLY- DRIVEN BREEZES.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CLOUDS TO SEE IF WE REACH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CRITERIA
TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 AM HST SUN SEP 13 2026
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
BEFORE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN ON THE
TRADE WIND FLOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISSIPATING BEFORE IT NEARS
THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST, REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE POTENTIALLY BY THURSDAY, LIKELY
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD ENERGY SLOWLY FADES. A SERIES OF
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE FIRST PULSE WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY LARGER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SWELLS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SURF COULD GET NEAR ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD PEAK JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
A SMALL SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL FILLED IN OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PEAK TODAY AND FADE OUT ON MONDAY. SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
TRADES STRENGTHEN AND THE REMNANTS OF NORBERT MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS. SOME SMALL ENERGY IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN EXPOSURES
TODAY FROM THE NORTHEAST SWELL, BUT OTHERWISE FLAT TO TINY SURF
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 331 AM HST SUN SEP 13 2026
FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND THE EFFECTS OF RECENT RAINFALL. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OR WEAK THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH
A BUMP IN THE TRADE WINDS AS REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM NORBERT
POTENTIALLY APPROACH THE AREA.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PARKER
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...SS
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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