714
WTPA42 PHFO 230844
TCDCP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 22 2026
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E
HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME WELL-DEFINED AS THE SYSTEM CROSSED FROM THE
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THERE HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, MAINLY IN A BAND TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SINCE THE REMNANTS HAVE MAINTAINED
TRACKABLE WITH CONTINUITY FOR OVER A WEEK SINCE LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS, ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED AND THE SYSTEM
WILL RETAIN ITS ORIGINAL DESIGNATION AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT AND IS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT IF THE CYCLONE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM, IT WILL RECEIVE
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NAME NOLO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIVES
SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK. THAT MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
CYCLONE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE FRIDAY OR ON SATURDAY.
AROUND THAT TIME, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
WESTWARD, ALLOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN RESPONSE, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN AND THEN
ACCELERATE WESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE
BEST-PERFORMING MODELS OF THE YEAR SO FAR, HCCA AND GDMI. GIVEN THE
COMPLEX STEERING EVOLUTION AND SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD, CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. INTERESTS IN THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND, SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SYSTEM.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 10 KT, HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES, AND SSTS OF AROUND 29
C. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE SYSTEM'S SPRAWLING LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE. CONSIDERING THESE CONDITIONS, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING TO START, FOLLOWED BY MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HAWAII. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE, AND THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMBINATION OF THE HAFS GUIDANCE AND
HCCA AND GDMI AIDS. THIS PREDICTION SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND NEARING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH
WHEN IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII BY THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY AND A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT TURNS NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECIFY THE EXACT
LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS, INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND ENSURE THAT THEY
HAVE THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLAN IN PLACE.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF HAWAII WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
THROUGH SATURDAY. LIFE-THREATENING, CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE FROM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
HAWAII, LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
3. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND AND WAVE IMPACTS IN THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 14.0N 153.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 154.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.6N 155.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.0N 155.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.9N 155.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 154.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 17.9N 154.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 18.3N 156.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 18.2N 159.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY/CANGIALOSI
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