159
WTPA42 PHFO 232056
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM NOLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST WED SEP 23 2026
THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING,
WITH TIGHTER CURVED BANDING FEATURES NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE RISING, AND THE
BULK OF THE VALUES NOW SHOW THIS AT OR ABOVE 35 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT, MARKING THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
STORM.
NOLO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO THE CAUSE NOLO TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT AND
THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TOMORROW WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS NORTH OF HAWAII, WHICH SHOULD FORCE A SHARP
LEFTWARD TURN WHILE THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO THE BIG ISLAND. IT
REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTHEAST NOLO GETS BEFORE THE RIDGE
REBUILDS, WITH THE SOLUTIONS THAT GAIN THE MOST LATITUDE IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS GENERALLY GETTING CLOSEST TO HAWAII. ALTHOUGH THERE
HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE ON THIS
CYCLE, THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD APPROACHING 250 N MI FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND. THE NEW FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTH ON
THIS ADVISORY, BUT IT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE WOULD SEEM TO PROMOTE ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNDER OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AN INNER CORE ON THURSDAY, WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION GIVEN VERY WARM WATERS, LOW SHEAR AND HIGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE LAST CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED SLIGHTLY FROM
DAY 3 AND BEYOND, SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR AND WEST OF HAWAII.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM NOLO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD, POTENTIALLY MAKING ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON SATURDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND, AND RESIDENTS THERE SHOULD
FOLLOW ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL OFFICIALS, INCLUDING EVACUATING IF TOLD
TO DO SO.
2. THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
IMPACTS ON THE BIG ISLAND IS NOW, AS HEAVY RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIFE-THREATENING, CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF HAWAII, LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
3. LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND.
4. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLAN
IN PLACE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 14.5N 155.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.7N 155.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.1N 155.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.8N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.7N 154.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.5N 154.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 17.8N 155.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 17.6N 158.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 18.8N 161.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
FORECASTER BLAKE
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