790
WTPA32 PHFO 241148
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM HST THU SEP 24 2026
..NOLO FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE LATE TODAY
SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.9N 156.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.0 WEST. NOLO IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP WESTWARD TURN BY SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA STARTING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO
20 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MAUI. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAUI, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY, SPREADING
WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.
FORECASTER BLAKE
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